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Revisiting the effect of regional integration on African trade: evidence from meta-analysis and gravity model

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  • Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor

Abstract

Two main shortcomings flaw the estimation of gravity model in previous studies that examined the trade-creating effects of African Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). First, these studies fail to account for the multilateral resistance term. This omission makes the estimates from standard gravity model bias and inconsistent. Second, there is a significant proportion of zero trade flows, however, these studies also fail to account for them properly. They use either the Tobit model or replace zero flows with arbitrary small values. Apart from these problems, they also exhibit considerable heterogeneity in the RTA effects on trade. In this paper, a meta-analysis of previous empirical studies is conducted to derive a combined effect size and also to explain the heterogeneity. In addition, I use the gravity model to compare the trade-creating effect of the main African RTAs. Using the gravity model, I compare the estimation methods of previous studies to the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator that tackles the zero flows. From the meta-analysis, I find a general positive effect of African RTAs of about 27%–32%. A comparative assessment of the RTAs using gravity model shows a striking heterogeneity.

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  • Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, 2017. "Revisiting the effect of regional integration on African trade: evidence from meta-analysis and gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 133-153, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:26:y:2017:i:2:p:133-153
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2016.1219381
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathilde MAUREL, 2018. "Régionalisme en Afrique : coûts de transport soft and hard," Working Paper a6f76318-cb2e-44b5-8463-f, Agence française de développement.
    2. Naima Saeed & Kevin Cullinane & Victor Gekara & Prem Chhetri, 2021. "Reconfiguring maritime networks due to the Belt and Road Initiative: impact on bilateral trade flows," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 381-400, September.
    3. Xing Yao & Yongzhong Zhang & Rizwana Yasmeen & Zhen Cai, 2021. "The impact of preferential trade agreements on bilateral trade: A structural gravity model analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor, 2018. "Economic diplomacy in Africa: the impact of regional integration versusbilateral diplomacy on bilateral trade," Chapters, in: Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy, chapter 20, pages 326-346, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. David Oluseun Olayungbo & Badar Alam Iqbal, 2021. "An empirical analysis of African trade blocs effects on the global economy: new evidence from the gravity model," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Sylvanus Kwaku Afesorgbor & Dela‐Dem Doe Fiankor & Binyam Afewerk Demena, 2024. "Do regional trade agreements affect agri‐food trade? Evidence from a meta‐analysis," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 737-759, June.
    7. Timsina, Krishna P. & Culas, Richard J., 2020. "Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    8. Enock Kojo Ayesu, 2023. "Boosting intra-African trade performance: the role of maritime transport logistics," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Krishna P. Timsina & Richard J. Culas, 2020. "Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 889-919, July.
    10. Demena, B.A., 2021. "Effectiveness of export promotion programmes," ISS Working Papers - General Series 688, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    11. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & Demena, Binyam A., 2019. "The Effect of Trade on the Environment: Evidence from Meta-analysis," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291225, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Assessing the impact of China shocks on intra-ASEAN trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Saima Nawaz, 2020. "Institutions, Regional Integration and Bilateral Trade in South Asia: PPML Based Evidence," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 221-242.
    14. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    15. Kharb, Ravita & Suneja, Vivek & Aggarwal, Shalini & Singh, Pragati & Shahzad, Umer & Saini, Neha & Kumar, Dinesh, 2024. "The relationship between investment determinants and environmental sustainability: Evidence through meta-analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 267-280.
    16. Demena, Binyam Afewerk & Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2020. "The effect of FDI on environmental emissions: Evidence from a meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Johnson, Michael E. & Farris, Jarrad & Morgan, Stephen & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Ajewole, Kayode & Beckman, Jayson, 2022. "Africa's Agricultural Trade: Recent Trends Leading up to the African Continental Free Trade Area," USDA Miscellaneous 333528, United States Department of Agriculture.
    18. Leudjou, Roland, 2021. "Assessing the impacts of eliminating Non-Tariff Barriers in the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area on Cameroons economy," Conference papers 330231, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Busani Moyo, 2024. "Impact of SADC Free Trade Area on Southern Africa’s Intra-Trade Performance: Implications for the African Continental Free Trade Area," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(1), pages 146-180, February.
    20. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2018. "A new evidence from the effects of Russia’s WTO accession on its foreign trade," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(1), pages 73-92, April.
    21. Bernard Hoekman & Dominique Njinkeu, 2017. "Integrating Africa: Some Trade Policy Research Priorities and Challenges," RSCAS Working Papers 2017/43, European University Institute.

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