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Dynamic financial distress prediction based on Kalman filtering

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  • Xinzhong Bao
  • Qiuyan Tao
  • Hongyu Fu

Abstract

In models for predicting financial distress, ranging from traditional statistical models to artificial intelligence models, scholars have primarily paid attention to improving predictive accuracy as well as the progressivism and intellectualization of the prognostic methods. However, the extant models use static or short-term data rather than time-series data to draw inferences on future financial distress. If financial distress occurs at the end of a progressive process, then omitting time series of historical financial ratios from the analysis ignores the cumulative effect of previous financial ratios on the current consequences. This study incorporated the cumulative characteristics of financial distress by using the characteristics of a state space model that is able to perform long-term forecasts to dynamically predict an enterprise's financial distress. Kalman filtering is used to estimate the model parameters. Thus, the model constructed in this paper is a dynamic financial prediction model that has the benefit of forecasting over the long term. Additionally, current data are used to forecast the future annual financial position and to judge whether the establishment will be in financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Xinzhong Bao & Qiuyan Tao & Hongyu Fu, 2015. "Dynamic financial distress prediction based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 292-308, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:2:p:292-308
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.947359
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    1. David Alaminos & Manuel Ángel Fernández, 2019. "Why do football clubs fail financially? A financial distress prediction model for European professional football industry," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Fernández-Gámez, Manuel Ángel & Soria, Juan Antonio Campos & Santos, José António C. & Alaminos, David, 2020. "European country heterogeneity in financial distress prediction: An empirical analysis with macroeconomic and regulatory factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 398-407.

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