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La prévision de la faillite fondée sur l’analyse financière de l’entreprise : un état des lieux

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  • Catherine Refait

Abstract

[fre] La prédiction de la faillite des entreprises fait l ’ objet de nombreux travaux empiriques , depuis une trentaine d ’ années . Elle se fonde sur l ’ analyse économique et financière d ’ entreprises défaillantes et d ’ entreprises non défaillantes , afin de déterminer les variables , principalement comptables , qui distinguent au mieux les deux catégories de firmes . Nous proposons un état des lieux afin de rendre compte de l ’ efficacité relative des différentes méthodes de classification utilisées . Dans ce but , nous exposons la démarche commune tout en mettant en évidence les différentes modalités d ’ application empirique . Nous présentons le principe des techniques disponibles et une comparaison de leur performance , en mettant l ’ accent , de manière non exhaustive , à la fois sur les études fondatrices et sur les études les plus récentes . Mots-clés : prévision , faillite d ’ entreprise , analyse financière [eng] A Review of Business Failure Prediction Based on Financial Analysis of the Firm . . Many studies of business failure prediction have been carried out in the last thirty years or so . Prediction is based on an economic and financial analysis of failing and non-failing firms with the aim of determining the variables , mainly of an accounting nature , that best distinguish the two categories . The purpose of this review is to assess the relative effectiveness of the different classification methods employed . To that end we identify the common elements while highlighting the different ways in which they are applied empirically . We describe the principle of the available techniques and compare their performance , focusing non-exhaustively on both the founding studies and on more recent research . Key-words : prediction , business failure , financial analysis

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  • Catherine Refait, 2004. "La prévision de la faillite fondée sur l’analyse financière de l’entreprise : un état des lieux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 162(1), pages 129-147.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2004_num_162_1_6937
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2004.6937
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2004.6937
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    1. CIOTINA Daniela & CIOTINA Ioan Marius, 2013. "Symptoms of Bankruptcy and Prediction Models of Bankruptcy Risk," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 114-121, May.
    2. Sami BEN JABEUR & Youssef FAHMI, 2014. "Predicting Business Failure Using Data-Mining Methods," Working Papers 2014-308, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Sami Ben Jabeur & Youssef Fahmi, 2014. "Les modèles de prévision de la défaillance des entreprises françaises : une approche comparative," Working Papers 2014-317, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Sami BEN JABEUR, 2014. "Prévision de la détresse financière des entreprises françaises: Approche par la régression logistique PLS," Working Papers 2014-321, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Youssef Zizi & Mohamed Oudgou & Abdeslam El Moudden, 2020. "Determinants and Predictors of SMEs’ Financial Failure: A Logistic Regression Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, October.
    6. Sami BEN JABEUR & Youssef FAHMI, 2014. "Default Prediction for Small-Medium Enterprises in France: A comparative approach," Working Papers 2014-319, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.

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