IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/globus/v19y2018i5p1261-1274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Corporate Performance during Business Cycles: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms

Author

Listed:
  • M. A. Lagesh
  • Maram Srikanth
  • Debashis Acharya

Abstract

The present study is an attempt to assess the ‘probability of incurring loss’ of manufacturing firms in India during different phases of business cycles. We use data on a sample of 87 manufacturing companies for the period from 2002 to 2014 (comprising 1131 firm years). We use the panel logit model with the dependent variable derived from the return on assets to empirically test the hypothesis. Besides, we use firm-specific variables and macroeconomic variables as independent variables in the model. Firm-specific variables, namely size of the firm and interest coverage ratio and macroeconomic variables namely exchange rate, bank credit, inflation, interest rate and index of industrial production are statistically significant in predicting the probability of incurring loss of the firms during the study period. The results are important for investors, corporate houses, managers, lenders, policymakers and the research community as business cycles have a visible impact on all functional areas of an organization. Our study assumes significance because of the importance of macroeconomic variables in the strategic decision-making of the corporate sector in general and manufacturing firms in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • M. A. Lagesh & Maram Srikanth & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Corporate Performance during Business Cycles: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1261-1274, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:19:y:2018:i:5:p:1261-1274
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150918788740
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972150918788740
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972150918788740?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    3. Izan, H. Y., 1984. "Corporate distress in Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 303-320, June.
    4. Luigi Zingales, "undated". "Survival of the Fittest or the Fattest? Exit and Financing in the Trucking Industry," CRSP working papers 336, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    5. Marc Deloof, 2003. "Does Working Capital Management Affect Profitability of Belgian Firms?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3-4), pages 573-588.
    6. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    7. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
    8. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    10. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure - Reply," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 123-127.
    11. Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 69-90, Spring.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:905-938 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jandik, Tomas & Makhija, Anil K., 2005. "Debt, debt structure and corporate performance after unsuccessful takeovers: evidence from targets that remain independent," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 882-914, October.
    14. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    15. Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2006. "Aggregate economy risk and company failure: An examination of UK quoted firms in the early 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 911-919, November.
    16. Hossein Asgharian, 2003. "Are highly leveraged firms more sensitive to an economic downturn?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 219-241.
    17. Altman, Edward I, 1971. "Railroad Bankruptcy Propensity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 333-345, May.
    18. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    19. Albert Park & Dean Yang & Xinzheng Shi & Yuan Jiang, 2010. "Exporting and Firm Performance: Chinese Exporters and the Asian Financial Crisis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 822-842, November.
    20. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-138, March.
    21. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    22. Pearce II, John A. & Michael, Steven C., 2006. "Strategies to prevent economic recessions from causing business failure," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 201-209.
    23. Opler, Tim C & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Financial Distress and Corporate Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1015-1040, July.
    24. Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Ajit Singh & Geoffrey Whittington, 1975. "The Size and Growth of Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(1), pages 15-26.
    26. Geroski, P. A. & Gregg, P., 1996. "What makes firms vulnerable to recessionary pressures?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 551-557, April.
    27. Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?," NBER Working Papers 7010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    29. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Bhattacharjee Arnab & Higson Christopher & Holly Sean & Kattuman Paul, 2009. "Macroeconomic Instability and Corporate Failure: The Role of the Legal System," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-32, January.
    31. Levy, Amnon & Bar-niv, Ran, 1987. "Macroeconomic aspects of firm bankruptcy analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 407-415.
    32. Young, Garry, 1995. "Company Liquidations, Interest Rates and Debt," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 57-69, Suppl..
    33. Kumar, Rajiv & Vashisht, Pankaj, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis: Impact on India and Policy Responses," ADBI Working Papers 164, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    34. Sunti Tirapat & Aekkachai Nittayagasetwat, 1999. "An Investigation of Thai Listed Firms' Financial Distress Using Macro and Micro Variables," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 103-125, June.
    35. Briance Mascarenhas & David A. Aaker, 1989. "Mobility barriers and strategic groups," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(5), pages 475-485, September.
    36. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    37. Andrew Benito & Francisco Javier Delgado & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 2004. "A synthetic indicator of financial pressure for spanish firms," Working Papers 0411, Banco de España.
    38. Marc Deloof, 2003. "Does Working Capital Management Affect Profitability of Belgian Firms?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3‐4), pages 573-588, April.
    39. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    40. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "The Determinants of Investment: Another Look," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 71-75, May.
    41. Primoz Dolenc & Andraz Grum & Suzana Laporsek, 2012. "The Effect Of Financial/Economic Crisis On Firm Performance In Slovenia - A Micro Level, Difference-In-Differences Approach," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 8(2), pages 207-222.
    42. Valentin Dimitrov & Sheri Tice, 2006. "Corporate Diversification and Credit Constraints: Real Effects across the Business Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1465-1498.
    43. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    44. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
    45. Lambrecht, Bart M, 2001. "The Impact of Debt Financing on Entry and Exit in a Duopoly," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 765-804.
    46. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    47. Agustinus, Prasetyantoko & Rachmadi, Parmono, 2008. "Determinants of Corporate Performance of Listed Companies in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 6777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. "Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-291, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Narander Kumar Nigam & C. P. Gupta, 2021. "Correlation-based Diversification and Firm Performance: An Empirical Investigation of India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 442-458, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2006. "Aggregate economy risk and company failure: An examination of UK quoted firms in the early 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 911-919, November.
    2. Suzan Hol, 2006. "The influence of the business cycle on bankruptcy probability," Discussion Papers 466, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Antonio Fabio Forgione & Carlo Migliardo, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the impact of trade credit on bank debt restructuring," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(2), pages 415-438, July.
    4. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
    5. Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2017. "Bankruptcy prediction using Partial Least Squares Logistic Regression," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 197-202.
    6. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    7. B Korcan Ak & Patricia M Dechow & Yuan Sun & Annika Yu Wang, 2013. "The use of financial ratio models to help investors predict and interpret significant corporate events," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(3), pages 553-598, December.
    8. Sami Ben Jabeur & Youssef Fahmi, 2014. "Les modèles de prévision de la défaillance des entreprises françaises : une approche comparative," Working Papers 2014-317, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    9. Eduardo Acosta-González & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Hicham Ganga, 2019. "Predicting Corporate Financial Failure Using Macroeconomic Variables and Accounting Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 227-257, January.
    10. Khoja, Layla & Chipulu, Maxwell & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2019. "Analysis of financial distress cross countries: Using macroeconomic, industrial indicators and accounting data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Yasser Alhenawi & Martha Stilwell, 2017. "Value creation and the probability of success in merger and acquisition transactions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1041-1085, November.
    12. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    13. Ashraf, Sumaira & Félix, Elisabete G.S. & Serrasqueiro, Zélia, 2020. "Development and testing of an augmented distress prediction model: A comparative study on a developed and an emerging market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 57.
    14. Philippe Jardin & David Veganzones & Eric Séverin, 2019. "Forecasting Corporate Bankruptcy Using Accrual-Based Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 7-43, June.
    15. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Han, Jie, 2014. "Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 244-262.
    16. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Lillian Cheung & Amnon Levy, 1998. "An integrative analysis of business bankruptcy in Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 149-167, June.
    18. Martin Kukuk & Michael Rönnberg, 2013. "Corporate credit default models: a mixed logit approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 467-483, April.
    19. Elisa Ughetto & Andrea Vezzulli, 2011. "What role can mutual guarantee consortia play for financing innovation? A firm-level study for Italy," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 294-319.
    20. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:19:y:2018:i:5:p:1261-1274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.