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Exchange rate volatility and Turkey–EU commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Nazif Durmaz

    (University of Huston-Victoria)

Abstract

Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Turkey’s trade flows, assumed that the effects are symmetric. We change that assumption by assessing the possibility of asymmetric effects of the real lira-euro GARCH-based volatility on trade flows of 62 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and EU. Like previous research when we assumed symmetric effects and estimated a linear model for each industry, we found short-run effects of volatility on 26 Turkish exporting industries to EU and on 40 EU exporting industries to Turkey. These short-run effects lasted into the long run only in 11 Turkish and 19 EU exporting industries. However, when we estimated a nonlinear model, we found short-run asymmetric effects of volatility on 38 Turkish and 49 EU exporting industries. Short-run asymmetric effects translated into long-run asymmetric effects in 19 industries in both groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2021. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkey–EU commodity trade: an asymmetry analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 429-482, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:48:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-020-09472-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-020-09472-8
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2023. "Whose policy uncertainty matters in the trade between Mexico and the U.S.: Additional evidence from asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    3. Alper YILMAZ, 2024. "Bilateral J-Curve Between Türkiye and Its Major Non-EU Trading Partners: Evidence from Both Linear and Non-Linear Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 32(60).
    4. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    5. Nazif Durmaz & Tairu Jie, 2024. "Money demand in Mexico: a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 20-28.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey–EU trade; 62 Industries; Exchange rate volatility; Asymmetry; Nonlinear ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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