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US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Domenico Sartore
  • Lucia Trevisan
  • Michele Trova
  • Francesca Volo

Abstract

The intent of this paper is the construction of an econometric model able to produce reliable and reasonable forecasts for the US dollar/Euro real exchange rate. In order to achieve this aim, an area-wide model is analysed. The aggregation is motivated by the fact that the Euro-zone is under a single monetary policy. Furthermore, a more parsimonious parametric model enables one to consider an important source of non-stationarity given by the presence of structural breaks using the multivariate cointegration analysis. Against the Meese-Rogoff critique, the out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts using actual values of the exogenous produced by the estimated VECM are reasonably satisfactory.

Suggested Citation

  • Domenico Sartore & Lucia Trevisan & Michele Trova & Francesca Volo, 2002. "US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 480-501.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:4:p:480-501
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470210160894
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio, Morana, 2015. "The US$/€ exchange rate: Structural modeling and forecasting during the recent financial crises," Working Papers 321, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 28 Dec 2015.
    2. Baillie, Richard T. & Cho, Dooyeon, 2016. "Assessing Euro crises from a time varying international CAPM approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 197-208.
    3. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "What Determines the Forward Exchange Rate of the Euro?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2008.
    4. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "Does the US international debt affect the euro/dollar exchange rate?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_06, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    5. Costas Karfakis, 2006. "Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 973-980.
    6. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.

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