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Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?

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  • Costas Karfakis

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical link between the dollar exchange rate of the euro and the monetary fundamentals. The exchange rate is found to be cointegrated with money and income differentials, while the homogeneity restrictions are supported by the data. The weak form restrictions of the present-value model of the foreign exchange market are not rejected by the data, but the most stringent restrictions are strongly rejected. An estimated error-correction model explains a substantial part of the short-run exchange rate volatility and outperforms the random walk forecasts.

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  • Costas Karfakis, 2006. "Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 973-980.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:13:p:973-980
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100600638969
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    2. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "Does the US international debt affect the euro/dollar exchange rate?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_06, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    3. Yu Hsing & Bruno S. Sergi, 2009. "The dollar/euro exchange rate and a comparison of major models," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 199-205, April.
    4. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "What Determines the Forward Exchange Rate of the Euro?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2008.
    5. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2023. "Predictability and forecasting performance of major euro exchange rates using a relative PPP-based equilibrium model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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