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Assessing Euro Crises from a Time Varying International CAPM Approach

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  • Richard T. Baillie

    (Department of Economics, Michigan State University, USA; School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Dooyeon Cho

    (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

This paper initially reviews the current empirical literature on the Euro exchange rate. We consider the relationship between the euro and other floating currencies in terms of excess returns on bond markets and also the relationship between the euro-dollar and the US and European equity markets. One novelty in the paper is to consider the variation in the euro-dollar rate from an international capital asset pricing model (CAPM) perspective. The second new innovation is to use a kernel weighted time varying parameter regression approach which allows structural parameters and risk premium terms to evolve over time. We find evidence that the euro-dollar rate is substantially influenced by equity markets in the US and in the Eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard T. Baillie & Dooyeon Cho, 2016. "Assessing Euro Crises from a Time Varying International CAPM Approach," Working Paper series 16-03, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Erol Muzir & Cevdet Kizil & Burak Ceylan, 2021. "Role of International Trade Competitive Advantage and Corporate Governance Quality in Predicting Equity Returns: Static and Conditional Model Proposals for an Emerging Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Duan, Yunlong & Mu, Chang & Yang, Meng & Deng, Zhiqing & Chin, Tachia & Zhou, Li & Fang, Qifeng, 2021. "Study on early warnings of strategic risk during the process of firms’ sustainable innovation based on an optimized genetic BP neural networks model: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Dooyeon Cho & Dong‐Eun Rhee, 2024. "Determinants of market‐assessed sovereign default risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals or global shocks?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 35-60, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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