IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/amerec/v57y2012i2p196-209.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Recursive Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity: An Application to Asian Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Salah A. Nusair
  • Naser I. Abumustafa

Abstract

Previous studies have utilized conventional cointegration tests that are based on the assumption that the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) relationship is stable over the sample period. This assumption can be misleading if there were significant economic and policy changes over the sample period. To allow for the possibility of instability in the long-run PPP relationship, we utilize recursive cointegration analysis to test for the stability of cointegrating ranks and parameters. The results indicate evidence of cointegration for Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore, and a short window for Thailand around the 1997/98 Asian crisis with no evidence of structural breaks in the cointegrating vectors. Evidence of turbulence is detected around the 1997/98 crisis, the 1985 Plaza Accord, and around 1978-1984. Longrun parameters appear to have been stable for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, whereas instable for Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Salah A. Nusair & Naser I. Abumustafa, 2012. "Recursive Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity: An Application to Asian Countries," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 57(2), pages 196-209, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:57:y:2012:i:2:p:196-209
    DOI: 10.1177/056943451205700205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/056943451205700205
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/056943451205700205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    4. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    5. Mao-Wei Hung & Yin-Ching Jan, 2002. "Use of Deviations of Purchasing Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity to Clarify the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 195-218.
    6. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Chen, Show-Lin, 2004. "Are real exchange rates non-stationary? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 425-438, April.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 167-204, December.
    9. Yang, Jian & Kolari, James W. & Sutanto, Peter Wibawa, 2004. "On the stability of long-run relationships between emerging and US stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 233-248, July.
    10. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    11. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    12. Fujii, Eiji, 2002. "Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments in the Aftermath of the Asian Crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salah A. Nusair, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity under Regime Shifts: An Application to Asian Countries," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 241-266, September.
    2. Salah Nusair, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment of Asian real exchange rates," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 221-246, August.
    3. Zurbruegg, R. & Allsopp, L., 2004. "Purchasing power parity and the impact of the East Asian currency crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 739-758, August.
    4. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    5. S. M. Woahid Murad & Mohammad Amzad Hossain, 2018. "The ASEAN experience of the purchasing power parity theory," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
    7. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    8. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    9. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    10. Carsten Trenkler*, 2005. "The Effects of Ignoring Level Shifts on Systems Cointegration Tests," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 281-301, August.
    11. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    12. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    13. Salah A. Nusair & Khalid M. Kisswani, 2015. "Asian Real Exchange Rates And Oil Prices: A Cointegration Analysis Under Structural Breaks," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(S1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Ma, Wei & Li, Haiqi & Park, Sung Y., 2017. "Empirical conditional quantile test for purchasing power parity: Evidence from East Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 211-222.
    15. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
    16. Patrick Wilson & Michael White & Neil Dunse & Chee Cheong & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2011. "Modelling Price Movements in Housing Micro Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(9), pages 1853-1874, July.
    17. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    18. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christoph Hanck, 2009. "Cointegration tests of PPP: do they also exhibit erratic behaviour?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 9-15.
    19. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Raj Aggarwal & Chan Tze Haw, 2007. "East Asian Real Exchange Rates and PPP: New Evidence from Panel-data Tests," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 103-119.
    20. Andrade, Philippe & Bruneau, Catherine & Gregoir, Stephane, 2005. "Testing for the cointegration rank when some cointegrating directions are changing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 269-310, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:57:y:2012:i:2:p:196-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/aex .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.