IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjfi/v5y1999i4p299-314.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets

Author

Listed:
  • Atreya Chakraborty
  • John Barkoulas

Abstract

The hedging effectiveness of dynamic strategies is compared with static (traditional) ones using futures contracts for the five leading currencies. The traditional hedging model assumes time invariance in the joint distribution of spot and futures price changes thus leading to a constant optimal hedge ratio (OHR). However, if this time-invariance assumption is violated, time-varying OHRs are appropriate for hedging purposes. A bivariate GARCH model is employed to estimate the joint distribution of spot and futures currency returns and the sequence of dynamic (time-varying) OHRs is constructed based upon the estimated parameters of the conditional covariance matrix. The empirical evidence strongly supports time-varying OHRs but the dynamic model provides superior out-of-sample hedging performance, compared to the static model, only for the Canadian dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Atreya Chakraborty & John Barkoulas, 1999. "Dynamic futures hedging in currency markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 299-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:4:p:299-314
    DOI: 10.1080/135184799336975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/135184799336975
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/135184799336975?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leland L. Johnson, 1960. "The Theory of Hedging and Speculation in Commodity Futures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 27(3), pages 139-151.
    2. G. Lypny & M. Powalla, 1998. "The hedging effectiveness of DAX futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 345-355.
    3. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    4. Judy C. Lewent & A. John Kearney, 1990. "Identifying, Measuring, And Hedging Currency Risk At Merck," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 2(4), pages 19-28, January.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Charles Dale, 1981. "The hedging effectiveness of currency futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 77-88, March.
    7. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. Joanne Hill & Thomas Schneeweis, 1982. "The Hedging Effectiveness Of Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 5(1), pages 95-104, March.
    11. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
    12. McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan G, 1988. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutsche Mark Futures with Models Specifying the Form of Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 187-202, July-Sept.
    13. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    14. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-186, January.
    18. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    21. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. "Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-669, July.
    22. Geczy, Christopher & Minton, Bernadette A & Schrand, Catherine, 1997. "Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1323-1354, September.
    23. Theoharry Grammatikos & Anthony Saunders, 1983. "Stability and the hedging performance of foreign currency futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 295-305, September.
    24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Lau & Yongyang Su & Na Tan & Zhe Zhang, 2014. "Hedging China’s energy oil market risks," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 99-112, June.
    2. Aleksander Olstad & George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis, 2021. "Oil and currency volatilities: Co‐movements and hedging opportunities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2351-2374, April.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    4. Caporin, Massimiliano & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel & Gonzalez-Serrano, Lydia, 2014. "Currency hedging strategies in strategic benchmarks and the global and Euro sovereign financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 159-177.
    5. Chang, Chiao-Yi & Lai, Jing-Yi & Chuang, I-Yuan, 2010. "Futures hedging effectiveness under the segmentation of bear/bull energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 442-449, March.
    6. Wei-Han Liu, 2014. "Optimal hedge ratio estimation and hedge effectiveness with multivariate skew distributions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(12), pages 1420-1435, April.
    7. Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, 2013. "Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 37-48, January.
    8. Liu, Xiaochun & Jacobsen, Brian, 2011. "The Dynamic International Optimal Hedge Ratio," MPRA Paper 35260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Su, Yongyang & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Tan, Na, 2013. "Hedging China’s Energy Oil Market Risks," MPRA Paper 47134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Асатуров К.Г. & Теплова Т.В., 2014. "Построение Коэффициентов Хеджирования Для Высоколиквидных Акций Российского Рынка На Основе Моделей Класса Garch," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 50(1), pages 37-54, январь.
    11. Kotkatvuori-Örnberg, Juha, 2016. "Dynamic conditional copula correlation and optimal hedge ratios with currency futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-69.
    12. Yan Hu & Jian Ni, 2024. "A deep learning‐based financial hedging approach for the effective management of commodity risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 879-900, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2022. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hedging functionality of Chinese financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    3. Chang, Chia-Lin & González-Serrano, Lydia & Jimenez-Martin, Juan-Angel, 2013. "Currency hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 164-182.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
    5. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Crack spread hedging: accounting for time-varying volatility spillovers in the energy futures markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 269-289.
    6. Rodt, Marc & Schäfer, Klaus, 2005. "Absicherung von Strompreisrisiken mit Futures: Theorie und Empirie," Freiberg Working Papers 2005/18, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D.R. Agarwal, 2017. "Hedging Efficiency of Indian Commodity Futures," Paradigm, , vol. 21(1), pages 1-20, June.
    8. An-Sing Chen & Yan-Zhen Liu, 2008. "Enhancing hedging performance with the spanning polynomial projection," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 605-617.
    9. Qu, Hui & Wang, Tianyang & Zhang, Yi & Sun, Pengfei, 2019. "Dynamic hedging using the realized minimum-variance hedge ratio approach – Examination of the CSI 300 index futures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. David Watt, 1997. "Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets," Staff Working Papers 97-18, Bank of Canada.
    11. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    12. Vicente Meneu & Hipòlit Torró, 2003. "Asymmetric covariance in spot‐futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(11), pages 1019-1046, November.
    13. Olson, Eric & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What is a better cross-hedge for energy: Equities or other commodities?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    14. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
    16. Dar-Hsin Chen & Leo Bin & Chun-Yi Tseng, 2014. "Hedging Effectiveness of Applying Constant and Time-Varying Hedge Ratios: Evidence from Taiwan Stock Index Spot and Futures," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 31-49.
    17. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets," Working Papers 0501, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    18. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    19. Rozaimah Zainudin & Roselee Shah Shaharudin, 2011. "Multi Mean Garch Approach to Evaluating Hedging Performance in the Crude Palm Oil Futures Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 7(1), pages 111-130.
    20. Alexander, Carol & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sumawong, Anannit, 2013. "The (de)merits of minimum-variance hedging: Application to the crack spread," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 698-707.
    21. Yang (Greg) Hou & Mark Holmes, 2020. "Do higher order moments of return distribution provide better decisions in minimum-variance hedging? Evidence from US stock index futures," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 45(2), pages 240-265, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:4:p:299-314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.