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Valuation of the minimum revenue guarantee and the option to abandon in BOT infrastructure projects

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  • Yu-Lin Huang
  • Shih-Pei Chou

Abstract

The real option approach is used to value the minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) and the option to abandon in Build-Operate-Transfer infrastructure projects. The option to abandon is formulated under an investment option held by the concessionaire at contract signing and to expire before construction commencement. MRG is formulated as a series of European style put options in a single option pricing model. When combined with the option to abandon in the pre-construction phase, MRG is reconstructed as a series of European style call options to develop a compound option pricing formula. The Taiwan High-Speed Rail Project is chosen as a numerical case to apply the formulas. The results show both MRG and the option to abandon can create values. When MRG and the option to abandon are combined, they will counteract each other and their values will thus be reduced. Increasing the MRG level will decrease the value of the option to abandon, and, at a certain MRG level, the option to abandon will be rendered worthless.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Lin Huang & Shih-Pei Chou, 2006. "Valuation of the minimum revenue guarantee and the option to abandon in BOT infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 379-389.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:24:y:2006:i:4:p:379-389
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190500434997
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "A Two-Factor Uncertainty Model to Determine the Optimal Contractual Penalty for a Build-Own-Transfer Project," CEF.UP Working Papers 1308, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying, 2015. "Modeling the impact of government guarantees on toll charge, road quality and capacity for Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-67.
    3. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2021. "Do exit options increase the value for money of public–private partnerships?," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 721-742, November.
    4. Polat, Levent & Battal, Unal (Ãœnal), 2021. "Airport infrastructure investments and valuing expansion decisions using the compound real option approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    6. Silaghi, Florina & Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "Agency problems in public-private partnerships investment projects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(3), pages 1174-1191.
    7. Yu-Lin Huang & Chai-Chi Pi, 2009. "Valuation of multi-stage BOT projects involving dedicated asset investments: a sequential compound option approach," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 653-666.
    8. Jiangang Shi & Kaifeng Duan & Guangdong Wu & Rui Zhang & Xiaowei Feng, 2020. "Comprehensive metrological and content analysis of the public–private partnerships (PPPs) research field: a new bibliometric journey," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2145-2184, September.
    9. Kangsoo Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2019. "Financing for a Sustainable PPP Development: Valuation of the Contractual Rights under Exercise Conditions for an Urban Railway PPP Project in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Jin, Hongyu & Liu, Shijing & Sun, Jide & Liu, Chunlu, 2021. "Determining concession periods and minimum revenue guarantees in public-private-partnership agreements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 512-524.
    11. Tung-Li Shih & Yu-Feng Chang & Tyrone T. Lin, 2020. "The Financial Decision Making for Tourism Hotels: Applying Real Options Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(2), pages 1-32, February.
    12. Carlos Contreras & Julio Angulo, 2017. "Valuing Governmental Support in Road PPPs," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 223(4), pages 37-66, December.
    13. Marco Buso & Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2018. "Termination Fees and Contract Design in Public-Private Partnerships," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0227, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    14. Biljana Rakic & Tamara Radenovic, 2014. "Real Options Methodology In Public-Private Partnership Projects Valuation," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(200), pages 91-114, January –.
    15. Yelin Xu & Yi Peng & Queena K. Qian & Albert P. C. Chan, 2015. "An Alternative Model to Determine the Financing Structure of PPP-Based Young Graduate Apartments in China: A Case Study of Hangzhou," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-15, May.
    16. Hongyan Chen & Ruwen Qin, 2012. "Real options as an incentive scheme for managing revenues in transportation infrastructure projects," International Journal of Revenue Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1/2), pages 77-101.
    17. Buso, Marco & Moretto, Michele & Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2021. "Excess returns in Public-Private Partnerships: Do governments pay too much?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Heidari, Mohammad Reza & Heravi, Gholamreza, 2024. "Development of flexible supportive policy with real options for renewable energy projects: Case of photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    19. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Cui, Qingbin & Zhang, Limao, 2015. "Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 68-80.
    20. Yu-Lin Huang & Tsen-Chin Lin, 2023. "Compound deferrable options for the valuation of multi-stage infrastructure investment projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(8), pages 670-686, August.
    21. Olubanjo Michael Adetunji & Akintola Amos Owolabi, 2016. "Valuation of Interacting Time-to-Build and Growth Real Options in Infrastructure Investments," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 202-215, December.
    22. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Zhang, Limao & Cui, Qingbin, 2015. "Making optimal investment decisions for energy service companies under uncertainty: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 234-243.
    23. Lee, Hyounkyu & Park, Taeil & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2013. "A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 360-368.

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