IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v27y2009i7p653-666.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation of multi-stage BOT projects involving dedicated asset investments: a sequential compound option approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Lin Huang
  • Chai-Chi Pi

Abstract

The valuation of multi-stage build-operate-transfer projects is not a trivial task. It needs to deal with uncertain project values in future expansions and the possibility of expansions or abandonment in the presence of project risks. The valuation problem becomes more difficult when multi-stage projects require upfront and intermediate dedicated asset investments for future expansions. Dedicated asset investments may or may not create project values, depending on whether future expansions could be justified and realized. A sequential compound option model is proposed to tackle these important valuation issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Lin Huang & Chai-Chi Pi, 2009. "Valuation of multi-stage BOT projects involving dedicated asset investments: a sequential compound option approach," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 653-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:27:y:2009:i:7:p:653-666
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190903002789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446190903002789
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01446190903002789?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberts, Kevin & Weitzman, Martin L, 1981. "Funding Criteria for Research, Development, and Exploration Projects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1261-1288, September.
    2. Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
    3. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    4. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Geske, Robert & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1985. "Valuation by Approximation: A Comparison of Alternative Option Valuation Techniques," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 45-71, March.
    6. S. Ping Ho & Liang Liu, 2002. "An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 143-156.
    7. Yu-Lin Huang & Shih-Pei Chou, 2006. "Valuation of the minimum revenue guarantee and the option to abandon in BOT infrastructure projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 379-389.
    8. THOMASSEN, Liesbeth & VAN WOUWE, Martine, "undated". "The n-fold compound option," Working Papers 2001041, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    9. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P. J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2004. "The valuation of a NDA using a 6-fold compound option," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 41-51, January.
    10. Klein, Benjamin & Leffler, Keith B, 1981. "The Role of Market Forces in Assuring Contractual Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 615-641, August.
    11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    12. Ivan Damnjanovic & Jennifer Duthie & S. Travis Waller, 2008. "Valuation of strategic network flexibility in development of toll road projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(9), pages 979-990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "A Two-Factor Uncertainty Model to Determine the Optimal Contractual Penalty for a Build-Own-Transfer Project," CEF.UP Working Papers 1308, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    2. Chih-Yao Huang & Ren-Jye Dzeng, 2019. "Evaluating Ancillary Business Scale for PPP-BOT Projects: A Social Housing BOT Case in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Wang, Xiandong & He, Jianmin, 2017. "A simple method for generalized sequential compound options pricing," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 85-91.
    4. Zhao, Pingping & Wang, Tong & Song, Aimin & Chen, Peimin, 2023. "Valuing new drug R&D project under economic fluctuation, technical risks and subjective uncertainty," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olubanjo Michael Adetunji & Akintola Amos Owolabi, 2016. "Valuation of Interacting Time-to-Build and Growth Real Options in Infrastructure Investments," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 202-215, December.
    2. Ales S. Berk & Dejan Podhraski, 2018. "Superiority of Monte Carlo simulation in valuing real options within public–private partnerships," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    3. Yu-Lin Huang & Tsen-Chin Lin, 2023. "Compound deferrable options for the valuation of multi-stage infrastructure investment projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(8), pages 670-686, August.
    4. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, July.
    5. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    6. Hartmann, Marcus & Hassan, Ali, 2006. "Application of real options analysis for pharmaceutical R&D project valuation--Empirical results from a survey," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 343-354, April.
    7. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    8. Suvankar Ghosh & Xiaolin Li, 2013. "A Real Options Model for Generalized Meta-Staged Projects---Valuing the Migration to SOA," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 1011-1027, December.
    9. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    10. S H Martzoukos, 2009. "Real R&D options and optimal activation of two-dimensional random controls," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 843-858, June.
    11. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    12. Mondher Bellalah, 2009. "Derivatives, Risk Management & Value," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7175, August.
    13. L. Sereno, 2006. "Valuing R & D Investments With A Jump-Diffusion Process," Working Papers 569, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    14. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    15. Cassimon, D. & Engelen, P.J. & Thomassen, L. & Van Wouwe, M., 2007. "Closed-form valuation of American call options on stocks paying multiple dividends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 33-48, March.
    16. Kimura, Toshikazu, 2010. "Valuing continuous-installment options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 222-230, February.
    17. Mahdi Mattar & Charles Cheah, 2006. "Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty: private risk effects and real options," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 847-860.
    18. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, September.
    19. THOMASSEN, Liesbeth & VAN CASTEREN, Jan & VAN WOUWE, Martine, 2002. "Decomposition of the n-fold compound option," Working Papers 2002040, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    20. Lee, Meng-Yu & Yeh, Fang-Bo & Chen, An-Pin, 2008. "The generalized sequential compound options pricing and sensitivity analysis," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 38-54, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valuation; build-operate-transfer;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:27:y:2009:i:7:p:653-666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.