IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v43y2011i14p1729-1736.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using experimental economics to evaluate alternative subjective elicitation procedures

Author

Listed:
  • Keith Coble
  • Zhijun Yang
  • M. Darren Hudson

Abstract

Managing uncertainty is an unavoidable challenge in a variety of decision contexts. If empirical data are available, statistics can be used to assist decision-making. If objective data are absent, experts are commonly used as a source of subjective probability estimates about the variable of interest. In our controlled economic experiment, a web-based software was developed and incentive-compatible rewards were applied to participants in order to induce rational decision-making. Participants assessed data drawn from known distributions and then responded to a subjective probability elicitation. The empirical results provide experimentally based guidance on elicitation and aggregation techniques that yield the most accurate subjective estimates of unknown probabilities. The results can be applied to a wide array of decision-making processes involving subjective probability analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Coble & Zhijun Yang & M. Darren Hudson, 2011. "Using experimental economics to evaluate alternative subjective elicitation procedures," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(14), pages 1729-1736.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:14:p:1729-1736
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802600632
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840802600632
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840802600632?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouchi, Fumika, 2004. "A literature review on the use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3201, The World Bank.
    2. Zhijun Yang & K. H. Coble & M. Darren Hudson, 2009. "The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 209-222, March.
    3. Robert G. Nelson & David A. Bessler, 1989. "Subjective Probabilities and Scoring Rules: Experimental Evidence," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 363-369.
    4. Bruno Chauvin & Danièle Hermand & Etienne Mullet, 2007. "Risk Perception and Personality Facets," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 171-185, February.
    5. Tom Knight & S. R. Johnson & Robert M. Finley, 1985. "Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(1), pages 147-148.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Bell & Rozlyn Engel & Darren Hudson & Julian Jamison & William Skimmyhorn, 2018. "Risk preferences in future military leaders," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 2(2), pages 11-24, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhijun Yang & K. H. Coble & M. Darren Hudson, 2009. "The role of individual personality type in subjective risk elicitation outcomes," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 209-222, March.
    2. Caroline Roussy & Aude Ridier & Karim Chaïb, 2014. "Adoption d’innovations par les agriculteurs : rôle des perceptions et des préférences," Post-Print hal-01123427, HAL.
    3. Hannah Eboh & Courtney Gallaher & Thomas Pingel & Walker Ashley, 2021. "Risk perception in small island developing states: a case study in the Commonwealth of Dominica," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 889-914, January.
    4. Hanea, D.M. & Jagtman, H.M. & van Alphen, L.L.M.M. & Ale, B.J.M., 2010. "Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 729-741.
    5. Marta O. Soares & Jo C. Dumville & Rebecca L. Ashby & Cynthia P. Iglesias & Laura Bojke & Una Adderley & Elizabeth McGinnis & Nikki Stubbs & David J. Torgerson & Karl Claxton & Nicky Cullum, 2013. "Methods to Assess Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Further Research When Data Are Sparse," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 33(3), pages 415-436, April.
    6. Wim Kellens & Ruud Zaalberg & Tijs Neutens & Wouter Vanneuville & Philippe De Maeyer, 2011. "An Analysis of the Public Perception of Flood Risk on the Belgian Coast," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(7), pages 1055-1068, July.
    7. Moffitt, L. Joe & Osteen, Craig D., 2006. "Prioritizing Invasive Species Threats Under Uncertainty," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-11, April.
    8. Moritz Heß & Christian von Scheve & Jürgen Schupp & Gert G. Wagner, 2013. "Sind Politiker risikofreudiger als das Volk?: Eine empirische Studie zu Mitgliedern des Deutschen Bundestags," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 545, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Moffitt L. Joe & Stranlund John K. & Field Barry C., 2005. "Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Ivanov, Asen, 2011. "Attitudes to ambiguity in one-shot normal-form games: An experimental study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 366-394, March.
    11. Nolan Miller & Paul Resnick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2005. "Eliciting Informative Feedback: The Peer-Prediction Method," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1359-1373, September.
    12. Poier, Stefan, 2023. "A matter of risk? Investigating the battery purchase decision in the German photovoltaics market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Lonzozou Kpanake & Bruno Chauvin & Etienne Mullet, 2008. "Societal Risk Perception Among African Villagers Without Access to the Media," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 193-202, February.
    14. Langrock, Ines & Hurley, Terrance M., 2006. "Risk Preferences, Perceptions and Systematic Biases," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21343, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Madison Sween & Andrea Ceschi & Francesco Tommasi & Riccardo Sartori & Joshua Weller, 2017. "Who is a Distracted Driver? Associations between Mobile Phone Use while Driving, Domain‐Specific Risk Taking, and Personality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(11), pages 2119-2131, November.
    16. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    17. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
    18. Elena Commodari, 2017. "The Role of Sociodemographic and Psychological Variables on Risk Perception of the Flu," SAGE Open, , vol. 7(3), pages 21582440177, July.
    19. Palfrey, Thomas R. & Wang, Stephanie W., 2009. "On eliciting beliefs in strategic games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 98-109, August.
    20. Rabbani, Abed G. & Yao, Zheying & Wang, Christina, 2019. "Does personality predict financial risk tolerance of pre-retiree baby boomers?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 124-132.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:14:p:1729-1736. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.