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Structural changes, cointegration and the empirics of Thirlwall's law

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  • Alberto Bagnai

Abstract

Thirlwall's law establishes a relation between the long-run growth rate, the growth of exports and the long-run income elasticity of imports. The estimation of this parameter requires cointegration techniques, which in turn require a large span of data, thus exposing the estimates to risks of structural changes. While this problem has been recognized in the literature, the evidence produced is still partial, being concerned with a very limited number of countries, and in some respects unsatisfactory. In this article we fill this gap by assessing Thirlwall's empirical regularity on a sample of 22 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries using econometric techniques that allow for the presence of a shift of unknown date in the long-run parameters. The results are generally supportive of Thirlwall's hypothesis and allow us to reconcile and qualify the evidence provided in the existing literature.

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  • Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Structural changes, cointegration and the empirics of Thirlwall's law," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1315-1329.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:10:p:1315-1329
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701721299
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    1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Vincolo esterno e declino italiano (KPD10)
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2015-06-14 02:06:00

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    1. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    2. Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2020. "The PRC's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 163-181.
    3. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & José L. Oreiro & Mario W. D. Dávila, 2018. "Endogenizing Non-Price Competitiveness In A Model With Capital Accumulation And Bopc On Growth," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 83, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    5. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    6. Sascha Keil, 2023. "The challenging estimation of trade elasticities: Tackling the inconclusive Eurozone evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1235-1263, May.
    7. Gaetano Perone, 2018. "Produttività del lavoro, dinamica salariale e squilibri commerciali nei Paesi dell'Eurozona: un'analisi empirica," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 61-98.
    8. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    9. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    11. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer & Andre Novas Otero, 2023. "A tale of housing cycles and fiscal policy, not competitiveness. Growth drivers in Southern Europe," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 483-505, May.
    13. Srdelić, Leonarda & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2024. "International trade and economic growth in Croatia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 240-258.
    14. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    15. Bölükbaşı, Halime & Civcir, Irfan, 2024. "Imported Inputs, Balance of Payments and Economic Growth: a model and a test on the case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 319-332.
    16. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    17. Zhandos Ybrayev, 2022. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: an application to the Kazakhstan’s economy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 745-767, December.
    18. Sascha Keil, 2021. "The Challenging Estimation Of Trade Elasticities:Tackling The Inconclusive Eurozone Evidence," Chemnitz Economic Papers 042, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    19. Ferda Halicioglu, 2012. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth: the case of Turkey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 65-78.
    20. Lewis Chimfwembe & Kevin S. Nell, 2023. "The relevance of Thirlwall’s growth law in the Zambian economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 777-805, November.
    21. Elias Soukiazis & Pedro Cerqueira & Micaela Antunes, 2012. "Causes of the Decline of Economic Growth in Italy and the Responsibility of EURO: A Balance-of-Payments Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2012-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    22. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208, March.
    23. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Oreiro, José L. & Dávila Dávila, Mario W., 2018. "Endogenizing non-price competitiveness in a BoPC growth model with capital accumulation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 77-87.
    24. Leon Podkaminer, 2017. "“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 29-57, February.

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