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The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models

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  • A. Ozlem Onder

Abstract

This article, presents empirical evidence supporting instability of the Phillips curve in Turkey. We employ the multiple structural break models and the Markov-switching models and then evaluate the performance of the two models. The data pertain to the monthly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987 to 2004. The results show that the Turkish Phillips curve is not linear. There exists no evidence on the asymmetry in the inflation response to output gap. The persistence of inflation is found to be much lower than in linear models. After 2001, slight decline in persistence of inflation is observed. There exits weaker support for the Phillips curve for the periods where the policymakers attempt to take the advantage of the tradeoff between output and inflation relationship.

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  • A. Ozlem Onder, 2009. "The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2597-2604.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:20:p:2597-2604
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701222645
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    2. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Staff Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
    3. A. Özlem Önder, 2004. "Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets by Using the Phillips Curve and Alternative Time Series Models," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 71-82, March.
    4. Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone, 2000. "Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models," IMF Working Papers 2000/162, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Constantin Popescu & Laura Diaconu (Maxim), 2022. "Inflation – Unemployment Dilemma. A Cross-Country Analysis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(3), pages 377-392, June.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Islam , Faridul & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: A Time Series Exploration of North Cyprus," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(4), pages 113-130, December.
    3. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    4. Filiz Yesilyurt & J. Elhorst, 2014. "A regional analysis of inflation dynamics in Turkey," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. A. Nazif Çatik & Christopher Martin & A. Özlem Onder, 2011. "Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(5), pages 546-561, September.
    6. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    7. Mustafa Kocoglu, 2023. "Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2825-2853, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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