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Searching for the favourite-longshot bias down under: an examination of the New Zealand pari-mutuel betting market

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  • John Gandar
  • Richard Zuber
  • R. Stafford Johnson

Abstract

This paper tests for the presence of the favourite-longshot bias in a new setting. This bias #150 the tendency for bettors to underbet favourites and overbet longshots #150 has been found in most studies of pari-mutuel and bookmaking betting markets in the USA, the UK and Australia. However, there is growing evidence that in at least some pari-mutuel betting markets there is no favourite-longshot bias. This paper examines the previously unexplored New Zealand pari-mutuel betting market on horse races for evidence of this bias. Utilizing a large sample of recent New Zealand thoroughbred horse races, it is found that while early, off-track bettors price this bias into odds, late (on-and off-track) bettors eliminate much of the bias by the close of betting. That is, the results reinforce the view that not all pari-mutuel betting markets are characterized by a favourite-longshot bias at the close of betting. Evidence is also found that late bettors in this market are smart bettors.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gandar & Richard Zuber & R. Stafford Johnson, 2001. "Searching for the favourite-longshot bias down under: an examination of the New Zealand pari-mutuel betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1621-1629.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:13:p:1621-1629
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840010012951
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marshall Gramm & C. Nicholas McKinney & Douglas H. Owens & Matt E. Ryan, 2007. "What Do Bettors Want? Determinants of Pari‐Mutuel Betting Preference," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 465-491, July.
    2. Johnnie Johnson & Alistair Bruce & Jiejun Yu, 2010. "The ordinal efficiency of betting markets: an exploded logit approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3703-3709.
    3. Martin Kukuk & Stefan Winter, 2008. "An Alternative Explanation of the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(2), pages 79-96, September.
    4. Ariane Charpin, 2018. "Tests des modèles de décision en situation de risque. Le cas des parieurs hippiques en France," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 69(5), pages 779-803.
    5. Rodriguez Alvaro, 2011. "Computing the Probability of Winning a Competition with an Application to Horse Races," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-11, July.
    6. Alistair C. Bruce & Johnnie E. V. Johnson & John D. Peirson & Jiejun Yu, 2009. "An Examination of the Determinants of Biased Behaviour in a Market for State Contingent Claims," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 282-303, April.
    7. Buhagiar, Ranier & Cortis, Dominic & Newall, Philip W.S., 2018. "Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 85-93.
    8. Matthew Amor & William Griffiths, 2003. "Modelling the Behaviour and Performance of Australian Football Tipsters," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 871, The University of Melbourne.
    9. M. Sung & J. E. V. Johnson, 2010. "Revealing Weak‐Form Inefficiency in a Market for State Contingent Claims: The Importance of Market Ecology, Modelling Procedures and Investment Strategies," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 128-147, January.
    10. Niko Suhonen, 2011. "Market Efficiency in Finnish Harness Horse Racing," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 55-63, Spring.
    11. Marshall Gramm & Douglas H. Owens, 2006. "Efficiency in Pari‐Mutuel Betting Markets across Wagering Pools in the Simulcast Era," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(4), pages 926-937, April.
    12. Les Coleman, 2004. "New light on the longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 315-326.
    13. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
    14. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
    15. Suhonen, Niko & Saastamoinen, Jani & Kainulainen, Tuomo & Forrest, David, 2018. "Is timing everything in horse betting? Bet amount, timing and bettors’ returns in pari-mutuel wagering markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 97-99.
    16. Stefan Winter & Martin Kukuk, 2008. "Do horses like vodka and sponging? - On market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 75-87.

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