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Do increases in petroleum product prices put the incumbent party at risk in US presidential elections?

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  • Christopher Decker
  • Mark Wohar

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of petroleum product prices on recent United States' presidential elections by modelling the probability of the incumbent presidential party losing a state (under the United States' electoral college system) it had carried the previous presidential election. The main finding is that the probability of the incumbent party losing a state previously carried increases with petroleum product prices but only in those states that have primarily energy consuming economies. We also find that increases in the number of international conflicts, increases in real state per-capita income growth, and increases in state per capita grants-in-aid all reduce the likelihood of losing previously carried states while higher taxation growth increases this likelihood.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Decker & Mark Wohar, 2007. "Do increases in petroleum product prices put the incumbent party at risk in US presidential elections?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 727-737.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:6:p:727-737
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600735408
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerald T. Fox, 2009. "Partisan Divide on War and the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 905-933, December.
    2. Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(11), pages 3267-3277.
    3. Christensen, Adam & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2015. "Fuel price impacts and compliance costs associated with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 614-624.

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