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Issue Voting and Crime in Gubernatorial Elections

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  • Jeff Cummins

Abstract

Objective. Research on gubernatorial elections has focused extensively on the impact of the economy, ignoring other noneconomic issues that voters may consider when casting their ballots. This article examines the impact of one such noneconomic issue, crime, to determine whether voters hold governors accountable for crime rates and, if so, whether they incorporate national‐ or state‐level conditions. In addition, I investigate whether more educated segments of the electorate are likely to engage in issue voting. Methods. I empirically analyze these propositions using aggregate‐level data on gubernatorial elections from 1986–2004. Results. The data analysis reveals that crime significantly influences gubernatorial races, voters consider state‐ rather than national‐level conditions, and that crime rates have a larger impact in states with a more educated population. Conclusion. Future inquiries should explore other noneconomic issues at the national and subnational levels to determine the breadth of issues that impact elections.

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  • Jeff Cummins, 2009. "Issue Voting and Crime in Gubernatorial Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(3), pages 632-651, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:90:y:2009:i:3:p:632-651
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2009.00635.x
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    1. Peltzman, Sam, 1987. "Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 293-297, May.
    2. Chubb, John E., 1988. "Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 133-154, March.
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    4. Macdonald, Stuart Elaine & Rabinowitz, George & Listhaug, Ola, 1995. "Political Sophistication and Models of Issue Voting," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 453-483, October.
    5. Levernier, William, 1992. "The Effect of Relative Economic Performance on the Outcome of Gubernational Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 181-190, September.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Luigi Maria Solivetti, 2022. "Economic Reformism vs Sociocultural Conservativism: Parties’ Programmes, Voters’ Attitudes and Territorial Features in the UK General Elections 2019," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Michael K Miller, 2011. "Seizing the mantle of change: Modeling candidate quality as effectiveness instead of valence," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(1), pages 52-68, January.

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