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Binary choice models for rare events data: a crop insurance fraud application

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  • Yufei Jin
  • Roderick Rejesus
  • Bertis Little

Abstract

This study implements a recently proposed score test that could help guide insurance fraud researchers in deciding whether to use a logit or a probit model in predicting insurance fraud probabilities, especially when the occurrence of ones in the dependent variable is much less than zeros. The test is easily implemented in a crop insurance fraud context and seems to be a promising method that could be applicable to analysing and detecting potentially fraudulent claims in various lines of insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Yufei Jin & Roderick Rejesus & Bertis Little, 2005. "Binary choice models for rare events data: a crop insurance fraud application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 841-848.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:7:p:841-848
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000337433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dionne, Georges & Gagne, Robert, 2002. "Replacement Cost Endorsement and Opportunistic Fraud in Automobile Insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 213-230, May.
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    3. Rejesus, Roderick M. & Lovell, Ashley C. & Little, Bertis B. & Cross, Mike H., 2003. "Determinants of Anomalous Prevented Planting Claims: Theory and Evidence from Crop Insurance," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-15, October.
    4. J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2001. "A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 577-597.
    5. El Bachir Belhadji & George Dionne & Faouzi Tarkhani, 2000. "A Model for the Detection of Insurance Fraud*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 25(4), pages 517-538, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Damian Przekop, 2020. "Feature Engineering for Anti-Fraud Models Based on Anomaly Detection," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(3), pages 301-316, September.
    3. Ashok Mishra & Barry Goodwin, 2006. "Revenue insurance purchase decisions of farmers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 149-159.
    4. M. Ritter & O. Mußhoff & M. Odening, 2014. "Minimizing Geographical Basis Risk of Weather Derivatives Using A Multi-Site Rainfall Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 67-86, June.
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    6. Maria Figueroa-Armijos & John P. Berns, 2022. "Vulnerable Populations and Individual Social Responsibility in Prosocial Crowdfunding: Does the Framing Matter for Female and Rural Entrepreneurs?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 177(2), pages 377-394, May.
    7. Bayerstadler, Andreas & van Dijk, Linda & Winter, Fabian, 2016. "Bayesian multinomial latent variable modeling for fraud and abuse detection in health insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 244-252.
    8. Qimeng Pan & Lysa Porth & Hong Li, 2022. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Actuaries Climate Index for Estimating the Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yield and Insurance Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.
    9. Jessica Pesantez-Narvaez & Montserrat Guillen & Manuela Alcañiz, 2021. "RiskLogitboost Regression for Rare Events in Binary Response: An Econometric Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Denisa BANULESCU-RADU & Meryem YANKOL-SCHALCK, 2021. "Fraud detection in the era of Machine Learning: a household insurance case," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2904, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    11. Sharma, S. & Walters, C., 2018. "Influence of Farm and Lease Type on Crop Insurance Returns," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277399, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Erda Wang & Zuozhi Li & Bertis B. Little & Yu Yang, 2009. "The Economic Impact of Tourism in Xinghai Park, China: A Travel Cost Value Analysis Using Count Data Regression Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 413-425, June.
    13. Theuer, Sebastian & Gottschalk, Sandra, 2008. "Die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf das Gründungsgeschehen in Deutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-032, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Shenan Wu & Barry K. Goodwin & Keith Coble, 2020. "Moral hazard and subsidized crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 131-142, January.

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