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Do underlying measures of inflation outperform headline rates? Evidence from Australian data

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  • Lei Lei Song

Abstract

Many central banks often focus on underlying measures of inflation when assessing inflation trends. This paper compares the accuracy of underlying measures of inflation relative to the headline rates by using Australia data. It is found that the underlying measures did have smaller errors in predicting the long-term trend in inflation than the quarterly headline rate due to the volatility in the headline rate. As compared to the year-ended headline rate, the statistical test results, however, support only the measure of market prices excluding volatile items, not the others. There is some weak evidence of the weighted median measure outperforming the headline rate in the sub-period after 1993. With respect to directional accuracy, the test statistics cannot reject the null hypothesis of an equal probability correctly predicting the moving direction of the inflation trend, though the headline rates have a higher probability.

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  • Lei Lei Song, 2005. "Do underlying measures of inflation outperform headline rates? Evidence from Australian data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 339-345.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:3:p:339-345
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000295322
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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Pincheira Brown & Nicolás Hardy, 2024. "Correlation‐based tests of predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1835-1858, September.
    2. Jose Luis Nolazco & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2016. "The evasive predictive ability of core inflation," Working Papers 15/34, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Mohamed A. Osman & Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli, 2009. "Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 118-135.
    4. Liam J. A. Lenten, 2010. "Bananas and petrol: further evidence on the forecasting accuracy of the ABS 'headline' and 'underlying' rates of inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 556-572.
    5. Pablo Pincheira-Brown & Andrea Bentancor & Nicolás Hardy, 2023. "An Inconvenient Truth about Forecast Combinations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-24, September.
    6. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1060-1071.

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