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Trend breaks and the fisher hypothesis in canada and the United States

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  • Frank Atkins
  • Milanda Chan

Abstract

Using the sequential estimation methodology developed by Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 271-87, 1992), Zivot and Andrews (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-70, 1992) and extended by Lumsdaine and Papell (Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-18, 1997), empirical evidence is found consistent with the hypothesis that the 90-day Treasury Bill rate and the inflation rate in Canada and the US are stationary around a deterministic trend with two breaks. When the breaks are filtered out, the data is consistent with partial long-run adjustment of the nominal interest rate to an inflation shock, but not of the size predicted by the Fisher Effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Atkins & Milanda Chan, 2004. "Trend breaks and the fisher hypothesis in canada and the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(17), pages 1907-1913.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:17:p:1907-1913
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000291920
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bosupeng, Mpho & Biza-Khupe, Simangaliso, 2015. "The Impact of Money Supply Volatility on the Fisher Effect –A Botswana Empirical Perspective," MPRA Paper 77920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    2. Carlos Santos & Maria Alberta Oliveira, 2010. "Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 1577-1589.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:23:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sung Bae & Taihyeup David Yi, 2009. "Structural breaks and the Fisher hypothesis in bond and stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(24), pages 1961-1973.
    5. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    6. Jesús Clemente & María Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañés & Marcelo Reyes, 2017. "Structural Breaks, Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, February.
    7. Alexeev, Vitali & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Localized level crossing random walk test robust to the presence of structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3322-3344.
    8. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2007. "Mean reversion of inflation rates in 19 OECD countries: Evidence from panel Lm unit root tests with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(23), pages 1-15.
    9. Takayasu Ito, 2009. "Fisher Hypothesis in Japan: Analysis of Long‐term Interest Rates under Different Monetary Policy Regimes," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 1019-1035, July.
    10. Yuki Toyoshima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Panel cointegration analysis of the Fisher effect: Evidence from the US, the UK, and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2674-2682.

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