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Cross-country evidence on the link between inflation volatility and growth

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  • Fahim Al-Marhubi

Abstract

It is generally accepted that short-run monetary (mis)management, as reflected in inflation volatility, affects the long-run growth rate of the economy. This proposition is tested for a cross-section sample of 78 countries over the period 1965-85. The evidence suggests that, after controlling for other country-specific growth correlates, high inflation volatility is associated with lower mean growth. Inflation volatility was also found to have a negative effect on the productivity of investment, but does not appear to affect the share of investment of GDP. These results are also robust to an alternative data set that extends the sample period to 1994.

Suggested Citation

  • Fahim Al-Marhubi, 1998. "Cross-country evidence on the link between inflation volatility and growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1317-1326.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:10:p:1317-1326
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498324931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639.
    2. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "The Benefits of Price Stability," Working papers 352, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    3. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2007. "Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated–anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 287-296.
    2. Backé, Peter, 2004. "Fiscal policy and inflation volatility," Working Paper Series 317, European Central Bank.
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Activism and Price Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/04, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Gernot Pehnelt, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation in OECD Countries," Jena Economics Research Papers 2007-055, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2013. "The inflation–output nexus: Empirical evidence from India, South Africa, and Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 19-34.
    6. Wilson, Bradley Kemp, 2006. "The links between inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth: New time series evidence from Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 609-620, September.
    7. Levent KORAP, 2009. "On the links between inflation, output growth and uncertainty: System-GARCH evidence from the Turkish economy," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 89-110.
    8. Mujahid, Hira & Uddin, Imam & Tabash, Mosab & Ayubi, Sharique & Asad, Muhammad, 2021. "Inflation Volatility, Quality Of Institutions, And Openness," MPRA Paper 111151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Vu Manh Hoai Nguyen & Tin Huu Ho & Luan Huynh Nguyen & An Thi Ha Pham, 2023. "The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Stability in Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, July.
    10. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2023. "Central bank independence and inflation volatility in developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1320-1341.
    11. E. Yuksel & Y. Akdi, 2009. "The effect of different inflation risks on interest rates of the US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 169-175.
    12. Abdiweli Ali, 2001. "Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 87-106, March.
    13. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    14. Shesadri Banerjee, 2017. "Empirical Regularities of Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 133-156, June.
    15. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.

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