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Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link

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  • JESS BENHABIB
  • MARK M. SPIEGEL

Abstract

Recent research has concluded that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship exists over the range of negative to moderate inflation. Our results confirm a positive relationship between inflation and growth at moderate inflation levels, and support the contention that the relationship between inflation and growth is nonlinear over the entire sample range. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

Suggested Citation

  • Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 787-798, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:4:p:787-798
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bill Dorval & Gregor W. Smith, 2015. "Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1599-1615, December.
    4. Sorin-Constantin Deaconu, 2012. "“The Net Monetary Statement” and “The Net Non-Monetary Statement” – Assessment Indicators for The Financial Position of The Entity," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 12(3), pages 49-56.
    5. Óscar Afonso, 2022. "Growth and wage effects of the monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4058-4084, October.
    6. Agboton, Damien Joseph, 2024. "Relation inflation-croissance dans l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA) : Recherche d’une nouvelle preuve de causalité [Inflation-growth relationship in the West African Economic," MPRA Paper 121080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wang, Wenhao & Xu, Tao & Liu, Xiaoyi & Sun, Yongkun, 2023. "FDI inflows and income inequality: A Schumpeterian economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 805-820.
    8. AGBOTON, Damien Joseph, 2024. "Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): A Search for New Evidence of Causality," MPRA Paper 121814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Afonso, Oscar, 2023. "Inflation, technological-knowledge bias, and wages," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 91-103.
    10. Wei-Bin Zhang, 2020. "Inflation And Growth With The Miu Approach And The Equation Of Exchange," Social Sciences and Education Research Review, Department of Communication, Journalism and Education Sciences, University of Craiova, vol. 7(1), pages 45-71, July.
    11. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    12. Thanh Quang Phung & Ehsan Rasoulinezhad & Hang Luong Thi Thu, 2023. "How are FDI and green recovery related in Southeast Asian economies?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 3735-3755, December.
    13. Celil AYDIN, 2017. "The Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For D-8 Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-151, December.
    14. Oscar Afonso & Pedro G. Lima, 2023. "Effects of monetary policy on the skill premium and the growth rate in a directed technical change model with heterogeneous cash‐in‐advance constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4020-4036, October.
    15. Venky Venkateswaran & Randall Wright, 2014. "Pledgability and Liquidity: A New Monetarist Model of Financial and Macroeconomic Activity," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 227-270.
    16. Oscar Afonso & Rosa Forte, 2023. "How powerful are fiscal and monetary policies in a directed technical change model with humans and robots?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3008-3032, July.
    17. Ghossoub, Edgar A., 2023. "Economic growth, inflation, and banking sector competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Afonso, Oscar & Pinho, Mafalda, 2022. "How to reverse a negative asymmetric labor productivity shock in the European Union? A directed technical change analysis with fiscal and monetary policies," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-67.
    19. Agboton, Damien J., 2024. "Relation inflation-croissance dans l’Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA) : Recherche d’une nouvelle preuve de causalité [Infation-growth relationship in the West African Economic ," MPRA Paper 121086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2024.
    20. Afonso, Oscar, 2023. "Fiscal and monetary effects on environmental quality, growth, and welfare," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 202-219.
    21. Hsiu-Yun Lee & Yu-Lin Wang & Wen-Ya Chang, 2013. "Can growth-enhanced monetary policy improve welfare when people seek social status?," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 257-272, November.
    22. Oscar Afonso, 2023. "Losers and losses of COVID-19: a directed technical change analysis with fiscal and monetary policies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1777-1821, June.
    23. Stephen M. Miller & WenShwo Fang & Ozkan Eren, 2012. "Inflation Targeting: Does It Improve Economic Performance?," Working Papers 1207, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.

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