IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/45y2013i7p829-838.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Fendel
  • Michael Frenkel
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke

Abstract

This article uses the monthly Wall Street Journal poll between 2002 and 2010 to analyse whether professional economic forecasters believe in and, thus, apply Taylor-type rules for their own forecasts. Using their forecasts for the Federal Funds rate, the inflation rate and capacity utilization, we estimate whether these are internally consistent with the message of Taylor(-type) rules. We find that the expectation formation can indeed be described by Taylor-type rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "Do professional forecasters trust in Taylor-type rules? -- Evidence from the Wall Street Journal poll," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 829-838, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:7:p:829-838
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.613770
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2011.613770
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2011.613770?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
    4. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(8), pages 865-879, December.
    5. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    7. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    8. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob De Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, September.
    9. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
    10. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
    11. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    12. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    13. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    14. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318.
    15. Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10.
    16. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & João Pedro Neves Maia, 2022. "Interest rate expectations based on Taylor rule versus central bank’s survey: which performs better in a large emerging economy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4532-4544, August.
    2. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Christoph Ruelke & Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel, 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Trust in Taylor-Type Rules? - Evidence from the Wall Street Journal Poll," Post-Print hal-00743770, HAL.
    2. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. ""Ex-ante" Taylor rules and expectation forming in emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 230-244, June.
    3. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2008. "Infation Targeting matters! - Novel evidence from 'ex ante' Taylor rules in emerging markets," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 08-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fendel, Ralf & Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 224-232, June.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
    10. Frenkel, Michael & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Zimmermann, Lilli, 2013. "Do private sector forecasters chase after IMF or OECD forecasts?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 217-229.
    11. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    12. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2021. "Policy Rules and Economic Performance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    14. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
    15. Capistrán, Carlos, 2008. "Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
    16. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    17. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan-Miguel, 2013. "On the informational role of term structure in the US monetary policy rule," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1852-1871.
    18. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
    19. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules without Forward-Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
    21. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M., 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 235-249.
    22. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    23. Ralf Fendel & Michael Frenkel & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2009. "Expectations, Taylor Rules, and Credibility – Evidence from Four Small Open European Economies with Independent Central Banks," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-02, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    24. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2019. "The Taylor principles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:7:p:829-838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.