IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v22y2012i22p1881-1898.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How have the Turkish post-2001 stabilization reforms impacted on the conditional correlation between the Turkish and the main foreign stock markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Sukriye Tuysuz

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of the Turkish post-2001 stabilization reforms on the conditional correlation between the Turkish stock index (ISE 100) and the four major stock indices (S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, NIKKEI 225). We evaluate these correlations for the period ranging from January 1997 to April 2011 with Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models. The results obtained with the Asymmetric Generalized DCC (AGDCC) model lead to two substantial conclusions. First, the conditional correlation between the ISE 100 and the four other stock indices has strengthened permanently since late 2003, when the reforms started to produce the expected results in the Turkish economic and financial situations. Second, during most of the financial crises that occurred over the retained period, the correlation between the ISE 100 and the other indices increased for a short period. These increases could be explained by the ‘flight to quality’ and ‘flight to liquidity’. By contrast, during the Turkish crisis (2000--2001) the correlation between the ISE 100 and the other stock indices decreased due to the outflow of capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukriye Tuysuz, 2012. "How have the Turkish post-2001 stabilization reforms impacted on the conditional correlation between the Turkish and the main foreign stock markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(22), pages 1881-1898, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:22:p:1881-1898
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.684788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09603107.2012.684788
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603107.2012.684788?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manuela CROCI, 2004. "Country pair-correlations as a measure of financial integration: the case of the Euro equity markets," Working Papers 201, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Avinash Persaud, 2001. "Pure Contagion and Investors Shifting Risk Appetite: Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2001/134, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
    5. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Stock Market Integration For The Transition Economies: Time‐Varying Conditional Correlation Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 116-133, September.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1999. "International Asset Allocation with Time-Varying Correlations," NBER Working Papers 7056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    8. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Hafner, C.M. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "A generalized dynamic conditional correlation model for many asset returns," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2018. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Working Papers hal-01710398, HAL.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Feng, Yuanhua, 2006. "A local dynamic conditional correlation model," MPRA Paper 1592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ryan Lemand, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Dec 2020.
    5. Thi Bich Ngoc TRAN, 2018. "Contagion Risks in Emerging Stock Markets: New Evidence from Asia and Latin America," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, December.
    6. Ray Chou & Chun-Chou Wu & Nathan Liu, 2009. "Forecasting time-varying covariance with a range-based dynamic conditional correlation model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 327-345, November.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    8. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2002. "Conditional Dependency of Financial Series: The Copula-GARCH Model," FAME Research Paper Series rp69, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    9. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    10. Ahmed, Shamim & Bu, Ziwen & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2023. "Which factor model? A systematic return covariation perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Jinhui Luo & Philip Saks & Steve Satchell, 2009. "Implementing risk appetite in the management of currency portfolios," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(6), pages 380-397, February.
    12. Cristhian Mellado & Diego Escobari, 2015. "Virtual integration of financial markets: a dynamic correlation analysis of the creation of the Latin American Integrated Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1956-1971, April.
    13. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    15. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    16. Baumöhl, Eduard, 2013. "Stock market integration between the CEE-4 and the G7 markets: Asymmetric DCC and smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 43834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    18. Kuan-Min Wang & Hung-Cheng Lai, 2013. "Which Global Stock Indices Trigger Stronger Contagion Risk in the Vietnamese Stock Market? Evidence Using a Bivariate Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 473-497, June.
    19. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Examining the determinants of global and local price passthrough in cereal markets: evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH and panel analyses," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    20. Aboura, Sofiane & Wagner, Niklas, 2016. "Extreme asymmetric volatility: Stress and aggregate asset prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 47-59.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:22:p:1881-1898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.