IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wdi/papers/2014-1079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How smooth is the stock market integration of CEE-3?

Author

Listed:
  • Eduard Baum??hl
  • ??tefan Ly??csa

Abstract

We study the stock market integration of emerging CEE-3 stock markets (namely, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish markets) and hypothesize that this process has been gradual over time. As a proxy for integration, co-movements with three stock market indices that represent the developed markets (i.e., MSCI Germany, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, and MSCI World) are estimated using the standard, asymmetric, and corrected DCC-GARCH model. A smooth transition logistic trend model is then fitted to the dynamic correlations to examine the integration process. Evidence of strengthening relationships among the markets under study is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduard Baum??hl & ??tefan Ly??csa, 2014. "How smooth is the stock market integration of CEE-3?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1079, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2014-1079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/132978/1/wp1079.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Edward Glaeser & Simon Johnson & Andrei Shleifer, 2001. "Coase Versus the Coasians," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(3), pages 853-899.
    3. F. Cribari-Neto & S. G. Zarkos, 1999. "Bootstrap methods for heteroskedastic regression models: evidence on estimation and testing," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 211-228.
    4. Morris Bornstein, 1997. "Non‐standard methods in the privatization strategies of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(2), pages 323-338, November.
    5. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Stock Market Integration For The Transition Economies: Time‐Varying Conditional Correlation Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 116-133, September.
    7. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
    8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    9. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    10. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia, 2004. "Equity market integration in the Asia-Pacific region: A smooth transition analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 621-632.
    11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    12. Lucey, Brian M. & Zhang, QiYu, 2010. "Does cultural distance matter in international stock market comovement? Evidence from emerging economies around the world," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 62-78, March.
    13. Groh, Alexander Peter & von Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "How attractive is central Eastern Europe for risk capital investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 625-647, June.
    14. Dvorak, Tomas & Podpiera, Richard, 2006. "European Union enlargement and equity markets in accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-146, June.
    15. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
    16. Gjika, Dritan & Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-64.
    17. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states' stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1048-1057, June.
    18. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    19. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2013. "Is market integration associated with informational efficiency of stock markets?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 29-44.
    20. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    21. E. Baumohl & S. Lyocsa & T. Vyrost, 2011. "Shift contagion with endogenously detected volatility breaks: the case of CEE stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 1103-1109.
    22. Horvath, Roman & Petrovski, Dragan, 2013. "International stock market integration: Central and South Eastern Europe compared," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 81-91.
    23. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
    24. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    25. Lahrech, Abdelmounaim & Sylwester, Kevin, 2011. "U.S. and Latin American stock market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1341-1357.
    26. Hafner, Christian M. & Reznikova, Olga, 2012. "On the estimation of dynamic conditional correlation models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3533-3545.
    27. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Bhaduri, Saumitra N., 2011. "Correlation dynamics in equity markets: evidence from India," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 64-74, January.
    28. Hilliard, Jimmy E, 1979. "The Relationship between Equity Indices on World Exchanges," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 103-114, March.
    29. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
    30. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010. "Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
    31. Josef C. Brada, 1996. "Privatization Is Transition--Or Is It?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 67-86, Spring.
    32. Nicholas M. Kiefer & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Standard Errors Using The Bartlett Kernel Without Truncation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 2093-2095, September.
    33. Ripley, Duncan M, 1973. "Systematic Elements in the Linkage of National Stock Market Indices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(3), pages 356-361, August.
    34. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L., 2005. "Modeling equity market integration using smooth transition analysis: A study of Eastern European stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 818-831, September.
    35. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2000. "Financial system development in transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-524, April.
    36. Zbigniew Kominek, 2004. "Stock markets and industry growth: an Eastern European perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1025-1030.
    37. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    38. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-193, July.
    39. Lessard, Donald R, 1974. "World, National, and Industry Factors in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 379-391, May.
    40. Jeffrey Jaffe & R. Westerfield, "undated". "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    41. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    42. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2012. "Constructing weekly returns based on daily stock market data: A puzzle for empirical research?," MPRA Paper 43431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Christos Savva & Nektarios Aslanidis, 2010. "Stock market integration between new EU member states and the Euro-zone," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 337-351, October.
    44. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Westerfield, Randolph, 1985. "The Week-End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 433-454, June.
    45. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank.
    46. Panton, Don B. & Lessig, V. Parker & Joy, O. Maurice, 1976. "Comovement of International Equity Markets: A Taxonomic Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 415-432, September.
    47. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
    48. Alexander Groh & Heinrich Von Liechtenstein, 2009. "How attractive is central Eastern Europe for risk capital investors?," Post-Print hal-02312824, HAL.
    49. Frijns, Bart & Tourani-Rad, Alireza & Indriawan, Ivan, 2012. "Political crises and the stock market integration of emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 644-653.
    50. Graham, Michael & Kiviaho, Jarno & Nikkinen, Jussi, 2012. "Integration of 22 emerging stock markets: A three-dimensional analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 34-47.
    51. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    52. Jeffry M. Netter & William L. Megginson, 2001. "From State to Market: A Survey of Empirical Studies on Privatization," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 321-389, June.
    53. Stringham, Edward & Boettke, Peter & Clark, J.R., 2008. "Are regulations the answer for emerging stock markets? Evidence from the Czech Republic and Poland," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 541-566, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anita Radman Peša & Elżbieta Wrońska-Bukalska & Jurica Bosna, 2017. "ARDL panel estimation of stock market indices and macroeconomic environment of CEE and SEE countries in the last decade of transition," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 205-221, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baumöhl, Eduard, 2013. "Stock market integration between the CEE-4 and the G7 markets: Asymmetric DCC and smooth transition approach," MPRA Paper 43834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Eduard Baumöhl, 2014. "Determinanty integrácie akciových trhov krajín V4 [Determinants of CEE-4 Stock Market Integration]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 347-365.
    3. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of worldwide emerging and frontier markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 175-183.
    4. Baumohl, Eduard & Lyocsa, Stefan, 2013. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of European emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 49898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vyrost, Tomas & Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyocsa, Stefan, 2013. "What Drives the Stock Market Integration in the CEE-3?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 67-81.
    6. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Similarity of emerging market returns under changing market conditions: Markets in the ASEAN-4, Latin America, Middle East, and BRICs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-268.
    7. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2019. "Return spillovers around the globe: A network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 133-146.
    8. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2020. "Correlation and spillover effects between the US and international banking sectors: New evidence and implications for risk management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Eduard Baumöhl & Štefan Lyócsa, 2014. "Risk-Return Convergence in CEE Stock Markets: Structural Breaks and Market Volatility," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(5), pages 352-373, November.
    10. Guidi, Francesco & Ugur, Mehmet, 2014. "An analysis of South-Eastern European stock markets: Evidence on cointegration and portfolio diversification benefits," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 119-136.
    11. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    12. Eduard Baumöhl & Mária Farkašovská & Tomáš Výrost, 2010. "Integrácia akciových trhov: DCC MV-GARCH model [Stock Market Integration: DCC MV-GARCH Model]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2010(4), pages 488-503.
    13. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Bhaduri, Saumitra N., 2011. "Correlation dynamics in equity markets: evidence from India," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 64-74, January.
    14. Reboredo, Juan C. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2015. "An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 474-490.
    15. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    16. Fresoli, Diego E. & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "The uncertainty of conditional returns, volatilities and correlations in DCC models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-185.
    17. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    18. Pappas, Vasileios & Ingham, Hilary & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerry, 2016. "Will the crisis “tear us apart”? Evidence from the EU," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 346-360.
    19. Gjika, Dritan & Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-64.
    20. Roman Horváth & Štefan Lyócsa & Eduard Baumöhl, 2018. "Stock market contagion in Central and Eastern Europe: unexpected volatility and extreme co-exceedance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 391-412, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market integration; dynamic conditional correlations; CEE-3 countries; smooth transition model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2014-1079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WDI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wdumius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.