IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v18y2008i12p985-994.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonneutral short-run effects of derivatives on gold prices

Author

Listed:
  • Adrienne Kearney
  • Raymond Lombra

Abstract

About 90% of the decline in gold prices over the decade of the 1990s - from $393 (per ounce) in the beginning of 1990 to $286 in early 2000 - occurred after early 1995. While gold prices were falling, the use of derivative instruments (forwards, options, futures and the like) by the gold mining industry increased rapidly. Traditionally, such activity would not be expected to affect gold prices. In this article we investigate the possible impact of derivatives on the gold market. The research findings suggest that the use of derivatives by gold producers, whether it was to hedge against the risk of declining gold prices, or for other purposes, probably pushed gold prices below what they would have been based upon historical relationships. Conversely, when gold producers reduced their net derivative positions over the April 1999:IV to January 2006:I period, this de-hedging appears to have helped boost gold prices back toward levels consistent with longer run fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrienne Kearney & Raymond Lombra, 2008. "Nonneutral short-run effects of derivatives on gold prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 985-994.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:12:p:985-994
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100701367419
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100701367419
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100701367419?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kearney, Adrienne A. & Lombra, Raymond E., 2009. "Gold and platinum: Toward solving the price puzzle," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 884-892, August.
    2. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    3. Sameen Fatima & Christopher Gan & Baiding Hu, 2022. "Price Stability Properties and Volatility Analysis of Precious Metals: An ICSS Algorithm Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Hauner & Manmohan Kumar, 2011. "Interest rates and budget deficits revisited-evidence from the G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 1463-1475.
    2. Jung Sakong, 2021. "Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in US Housing Markets," Working Paper Series WP-2021-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Michael G. Plummer, 2012. "Regional Monitoring of Capital Flows and Coordination of Financial Regulation: Stakes and Options for Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & David G. Mayes & Peter Morgan (ed.), Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Financial Reform and Regulation in Asia, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    5. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 2007/202, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Kapp, Daniel & Kristiansen, Kristian, 2021. "Euro area equity risk premia and monetary policy: a longer-term perspective," Working Paper Series 2535, European Central Bank.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    9. Craine Roger & Martin Vance L, 2009. "Interest Rate Conundrum," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, March.
    10. G. Peersman & W. Wagner, 2014. "Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/874, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    12. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Li, Guoqiang & Zhao, Qingbin, 2020. "An alternative explanation for high saving in China: Rising inequality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1082-1094.
    13. Iley, Richard A. & Lewis, Mervyn K., 2011. "Has the global financial crisis produced a New World Order?," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 90-103.
    14. Sebastiaan Pool, 2018. "Mortgage debt and shadow banks," DNB Working Papers 588, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Trade Re(Im)Balanced: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements," IHEID Working Papers 06-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Juliane M. Begenau, 2015. "Capital Requirements, Risk Choice, and Liquidity Provision in a Business Cycle Model," Harvard Business School Working Papers 15-072, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2016.
    17. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2015. "The impact of Treasury supply on financial sector lending and stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 571-600.
    18. Francois John Nana, 2020. "Foreign official holdings of US treasuries, stock effect and the economy: a DSGE approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, January.
    19. István Benczes & Balázs Szent-Iványi, 2017. "The European Economy: The Recovery Continues, but for How Long?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55, pages 133-148, September.
    20. Chen, Qiuyu & Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:12:p:985-994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.