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Seasonality in stock returns: evidence from an emerging market

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  • Khalid Al-Saad
  • Imad Moosa

Abstract

This study investigates the nature of seasonality in the monthly stock returns derived from a general index of the Kuwait Stock Exchange. A structural time series model incorporating stochastic dummies reveals that seasonality is present but it is deterministic as implied by the constancy of the monthly seasonal factors over the sample period. Two conventional models that incorporate deterministic seasonal dummies corroborate these results. Moreover, seasonality is found to take the form of a July effect, as opposed to the better-recognized January effect. This finding is attributed to the 'summer holiday effect'.

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  • Khalid Al-Saad & Imad Moosa, 2005. "Seasonality in stock returns: evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 63-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:1:p:63-71
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000281185
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    2. Gulseven Osman, 2014. "Multidimensional Analysis of Monthly Stock Market Returns," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 181-196, December.
    3. Abdullah Al-Awadhi & Ahmad Bash & Fouad Jamaani, 2021. "Ramadan Effect: A Structural Time-Series Test," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 260-269, January.
    4. Ariss, Rima Turk & Rezvanian, Rasoul & Mehdian, Seyed M., 2011. "Calendar anomalies in the Gulf Cooperation Council stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 293-307, September.
    5. Talla Al-Deehani, 2006. "Seasonality as an unobservable component: the case of Kuwait stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 471-478.
    6. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Efficiency in emerging markets--Evidence from the MENA region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 94-105, February.
    7. A. Assaf, 2007. "Fractional integration in the equity markets of MENA region," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 709-723.
    8. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Revisiting calendar anomalies in Asian stock markets using a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-141, April.
    9. Hani Nuri Rohuma & Pradeep Brijlal, 2023. "Calendar Month Effect in Bursa Malaysia: A Comparison between Shariah-Compliant Portfolio and Non-Shariah- Compliant Portfolio," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 12-17, March.
    10. Vilija Aleknevičienė & Vaida Klasauskaitė & Eglė Aleknevičiūtė, 2022. "Behavior of calendar anomalies and the adaptive market hypothesis: evidence from the Baltic stock markets," Journal of Baltic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 187-210, April.
    11. Wong Pik Har & Lim Wei Chih, 2016. "Effects of Holidays on the Malaysian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 274-274, January.
    12. Abdul Rashid & Saba Kausar, 2019. "Testing the Monthly Calendar Anomaly of Stock Returns in Pakistan: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 83-104.
    13. Harry M. Karamujic, 2011. "Comparative Analysis of Australian Residential Mortgage (Home Loan) Interest Rates," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(3), pages 311-341, August.
    14. Sulaiman Mouselli & Hazem Al-Samman, 2016. "An Examination of the Month-of-the-year Effect at Damascus Securities Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 573-577.
    15. Andrew Worthington, 2010. "The decline of calendar seasonality in the Australian stock exchange, 1958–2005," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 421-433, July.
    16. Li, Fengyun & Zhang, Huacheng & Zheng, Dazhi, 2018. "Seasonality in the cross section of stock returns: Advanced markets versus emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 263-281.
    17. George Marrett & Andrew Worthington, 2009. "An empirical note on the holiday effect in the Australian stock market, 1996-2006," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1769-1772.
    18. Lucey, Brian M & Zhao, Shelly, 2008. "Halloween or January? Yet another puzzle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1055-1069, December.

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