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Political news and stock prices: evidence from Trump’s trade war

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Burggraf
  • Ralf Fendel
  • Toan Luu Duc Huynh

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of political news on stock price movements. Analysing more than 3,200 tweets from US President Donald Trump’s Twitter account, we find that tweets related to the US-China trade war negatively predict S&P 500 returns and positively predict VIX. Granger causality estimates indicate that the causal relationship is one-directional – from Trump tweets to returns and VIX. Finally, the results vary across industries depending on their degree of trade intensity with China.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Burggraf & Ralf Fendel & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2020. "Political news and stock prices: evidence from Trump’s trade war," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(18), pages 1485-1488, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:27:y:2020:i:18:p:1485-1488
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2019.1690626
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    Cited by:

    1. Dao Van Hung & Nguyen Thi Minh Hue & Vu Thuy Duong, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Returns in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Sheikh, Umaid A. & Asadi, Mehrad & Roubaud, David & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Global uncertainties and Australian financial markets: Quantile time-frequency connectedness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    4. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    5. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Alhazbi, Saleh & Al-Thelaya, Khaled, 2022. "Using machine learning to analyze the impact of coronavirus pandemic news on the stock markets in GCC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Yusaku Nishimura & Xuyi Dong & Bianxia Sun, 2021. "Trump's tweets: Sentiment, stock market volatility, and jumps," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 497-512, September.
    7. Pan, Yueling & Hou, Lei & Pan, Xue, 2022. "Interplay between stock trading volume, policy, and investor sentiment: A multifractal approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    8. Ito, Asei & Lim, Jaehwan & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Catching the political leader's signal: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2021. "Are precious metals and equities immune to monetary and fiscal policy uncertainties?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Murach, Michael, 2024. "Macroeconomic Effects from Media Coverage of the China-U.S. Trade War on selected EU Countries," MPRA Paper 121751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Albagli, Elías, 2022. "Trade wars and asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Killins, Robert N. & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2022. "Politics and equity markets: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2024. "Google search trends and stock markets: Sentiment, attention or uncertainty?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Nerger, Gian-Luca & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Wang, Mei, 2021. "Which industries benefited from Trump environmental policy news? Evidence from industrial stock market reactions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Alexander Koch & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Mei Wang, 2024. "News sentiment and international equity markets during BREXIT period: A textual and connectedness analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 5-34, January.
    16. Chien-Chiang Lee & Farzan Yahya, 2024. "Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino-US Trade Frictions?," Working Papers DP-2023-35, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    17. Machus, Tobias & Mestel, Roland & Theissen, Erik, 2022. "Heroes, just for one day: The impact of Donald Trump’s tweets on stock prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    18. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2021. "The high frequency impact of economic policy narratives on stock market uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 02/2021, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.

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