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Catching the Political Leader's Signals: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China

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  • ITO Asei
  • LIM Jaehwan
  • ZHANG Hongyong

Abstract

This study uses a text dataset of the Chinese President’s speeches and reports from November 2012 to December 2021 to construct an original economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index: President Xi Jinping’s EPU (XiEPU). XiEPU moderately correlates with a previous study’s representative EPU, showing notably different peaks. Our index spiked in April 2016 after a sharp decline in the Chinese stock market index and late 2020, reflecting the global COVID-19 pandemic. Using firm-level panel data, we find that a higher value of XiEPU is associated with a lower investment rate at the quarterly level and has a larger and longer-lasting effect than the existing China EPUs. Moreover, there are noteworthy heterogeneous effects among firms and periods. Specifically, we find a stronger effect of XiEPU on manufacturing sectors, a weaker effect on state-owned enterprises, and a stronger effect in the second term of Xi Jinping’s presidential tenure after November 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • ITO Asei & LIM Jaehwan & ZHANG Hongyong, 2022. "Catching the Political Leader's Signals: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China," Discussion papers 22081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:22081
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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