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Tests of the random walk hypothesis for London gold prices

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  • Graham Smith

Abstract

The hypothesis that London gold prices follow a random walk is tested for three prices, those determined at the morning and afternoon fixings and the closing price, using the multiple variance ratio test. For the prices set in the twice-daily fixings, the random walk hypothesis is rejected because of autocorrelation in returns. However, the closing price, which is determined by additional information and involves many more participants in the market, follows a random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Smith, 2002. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for London gold prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 671-674.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:10:p:671-674
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485021012458
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schweikert, Karsten, 2018. "Are gold and silver cointegrated? New evidence from quantile cointegrating regressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 44-51.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Berger, Theo & Czudaj, Robert, 2015. "Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 16-24.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran & Rehman, Ijaz Ur, 2014. "Is gold investment a hedge against inflation in Pakistan? A co-integration and causality analysis in the presence of structural breaks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 190-205.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    5. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2012. "Gold as an Infl ation Hedge in a Time-Varying Coeffi cient Framework," Ruhr Economic Papers 0362, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    7. Elie Bouri & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Testing the Efficiency of the Wine Market using Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," Working Papers 201664, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Helga Å padina, 2016. "Labour Discrimination Related to Pregnancy and Motherhood in Croatia," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, ejes_v2_i.
    9. Ali K k olak & Figen B y kak n & Necla Ilter Kucukcolak, 2019. "Cointegration of Equity and Gold Markets: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 32-40.
    10. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Subhendu Dutta & Aruna Kumar Dash, 2017. "Testing of the Seasonal Unit Root Hypothesis in the Price Indices of Agricultural Commodities in India," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 14(2), pages 63-81, December.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0362 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
    13. Michael Murach, 2019. "Global Determinants of the Gold Price: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 198-214, February.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    15. Wo-Chiang Lee & Hui-Na Lin, 2012. "Threshold effects in the relationships between USD and gold futures by panel smooth transition approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1065-1070, July.
    16. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Pervez Ahmed & Zafar Hayat, 2020. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 69-80.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0502 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    19. Perera, Devmali & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T., 2020. "Does the tea market require a futures contract? Evidence from the Sri Lankan tea market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Qureshi, Saba & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Qureshi, Fiza, 2018. "Does gold act as a safe haven against exchange rate fluctuations? The case of Pakistan rupee," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 685-708.
    21. Narinder Pal Singh & Navneet Joshi, 2019. "Investigating Gold Investment as an Inflationary Hedge," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 30-41, January.
    22. Michalis Skourtos & Dimitris Damigos & Areti Kontogianni & Christos Tourkolias & Alistair Hunt, 2019. "Embedding Preference Uncertainty for Environmental Amenities in Climate Change Economic Assessments: A “Random” Step Forward," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
    23. Joscha Beckmann & Theo Berger & Robert Czudaj, 2014. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge or a Safe Haven for Stocks? A Smooth Transition Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0502, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    24. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Testing for causality between the gold return and stock market performance: evidence for ‘gold investment in case of emergency’," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 27-40, January.
    25. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Eric Le Fur, 2024. "What can we learn from the analysis of the fine wines market efficiency?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 703-718, January.

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