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Crisis-induced intermittency in non-linear economic cycles

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  • A. C. -L. Chian
  • E. L. Rempel
  • C. Rogers

Abstract

A new type of economic intermittency is found in non-linear business cycles. Following a merging crisis, a complex economic system has the ability to retain memory of its weakly chaotic dynamics prior to crisis. The resulting time series exhibits episodic regime switching between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations of economic variables. The characteristic intermittency time, useful for forecasting the average duration of contractionary phases and the turning point to the expansionary phase of business cycles, is computed from the simulated time series.

Suggested Citation

  • A. C. -L. Chian & E. L. Rempel & C. Rogers, 2007. "Crisis-induced intermittency in non-linear economic cycles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:211-218
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jiaorui & Feng, C.S., 2010. "First-passage failure of a business cycle model under time-delayed feedback control and wide-band random excitation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(24), pages 5557-5562.
    2. Saiki, Y. & Chian, A.C.L. & Yoshida, H., 2011. "Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 418-428.
    3. Mastroeni, Loretta & Vellucci, Pierluigi & Naldi, Maurizio, 2019. "A reappraisal of the chaotic paradigm for energy commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 167-178.
    4. Cristescu, Constantin P. & Stan, Cristina & Scarlat, Eugen I. & Minea, Teofil & Cristescu, Cristina M., 2012. "Parameter motivated mutual correlation analysis: Application to the study of currency exchange rates based on intermittency parameter and Hurst exponent," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2623-2635.

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