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First-passage failure of a business cycle model under time-delayed feedback control and wide-band random excitation

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  • Li, Jiaorui
  • Feng, C.S.

Abstract

First-passage failure of a classical business cycle model subject to time-delayed feedback control and wide-band random excitation is investigated in this paper. First, we get the averaged equation by using a stochastic averaging method, and then a backward Kolmogorov equation governing the conditional reliability function and a set of generalized Pontryagin equations governing the conditional moments of first-passage time are established. The conditional reliability function, the conditional probability density and moments of first-passage time are obtained by solving the backward Kolmogorov equation and generalized Pontryagin equations analytically and numerically with suitable initial and boundary conditions. The results show that time delay in the feedback control forces may remarkably reduce the conditional reliability and the mean first-passage time of the controlled economics system.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jiaorui & Feng, C.S., 2010. "First-passage failure of a business cycle model under time-delayed feedback control and wide-band random excitation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(24), pages 5557-5562.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:24:p:5557-5562
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2010.08.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chian, Abraham C.-L. & Borotto, Felix A. & Rempel, Erico L. & Rogers, Colin, 2005. "Attractor merging crisis in chaotic business cycles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 869-875.
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    7. Chian, Abraham C.-L. & Rempel, Erico L. & Rogers, Colin, 2006. "Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1194-1218.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guan, Yu & Li, Wei & Kozak, Drazan & Zhao, Junfeng, 2024. "Response and reliability analysis of a nonlinear VEH systems with FOPID controller by improved stochastic averaging method and LBFNN algorithm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
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    3. Jochen Jungeilges & Tatyana Ryazanova, 2018. "Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 355-380, December.

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