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Why explore for oil when it is cheaper to buy?

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  • Les Coleman

Abstract

This article uses results of independent US oil companies to examine their decisions in a high-risk environment. When these companies seek to replace oil production, the available choices fall into two broad classifications, each with its own distribution of expected costs and returns: explore for oil; or buy proven oil reserves. Firms prove risk-sensitive in their decisions as the balance struck between building reserves by acquisition and by exploration responds to firm characteristics. The crossover from risk embrace (exploration) to risk aversion (acquisition) occurs when the probability of success from the more risky strategy drops below about 15%. This matches the behaviour of decision makers when facing risks as diverse as acquisitions and racetrack betting. Shareholders, however, do not support risk-taking for its own sake, although they bid up the price of successful risk-takers. This reveals a divergence in goals between principals and agents; and an inverse relationship between risk-taking and return as measured by shareholder value.

Suggested Citation

  • Les Coleman, 2005. "Why explore for oil when it is cheaper to buy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 493-497.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:8:p:493-497
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500109733
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2016. "An event study analysis of oil and gas firm acreage and reserve acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 215-227.
    2. Tega Anighoro, 2020. "Value relevance of the components of oil and gas reserve quantity change disclosures of upstream oil and gas companies in the london stock exchange," Papers 2005.14659, arXiv.org.
    3. Véronique Blum & Charlotte Krychowski, 2023. "Capturing risks in accounting, the case of extractive industries [La prise en compte du risque en comptabilité, le cas des industries extractives]," Post-Print hal-04280973, HAL.
    4. Sabet, Amir H. & Heaney, Richard, 2015. "Bid-ask spread, information asymmetry and acquisition of oil and gas assets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 77-84.

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