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A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy

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  • Moritz Cruz

Abstract

A three-regime business cycle model is proposed based on Minsky financial instability hypothesis. Using this framework and a Markov switching autoregressive model Mexico's business cycle turning points are identified published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Suggested Citation

  • Moritz Cruz, 2005. "A three-regime business cycle model for an emerging economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 399-402.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:7:p:399-402
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500118775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H.-M., 1997. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 489, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Jan A. Kregel, 1998. "Yes, 'It' Did Happen Again: A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_234, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Philip Arestis, 2002. "Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(2), pages 237-260, March.
    4. Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
    5. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 47-75.
    6. Sichel, Daniel E, 1994. "Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-277, July.
    7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, June.
    8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    9. Ferrara, Laurent, 2003. "A three-regime real-time indicator for the US economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 373-378, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Identifying US turning points revisited: the panel model with the regime switching approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 893-897.
    2. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
    3. Huseyin Tastan & Nuri Yildirim, 2008. "Business cycle asymmetries in Turkey: an application of Markov-switching autoregressions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 315-333.
    4. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez, 2007. "Depressions in the Colombian economic growth during the twentieth century: a Markov switching regime model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 803-808.
    5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Business cycle dynamics in a small open economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1153-1157.

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