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Time inconsistency of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from polls

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  • Michael Berlemann

Abstract

While the basic model of time inconsistency, put forward by Barro and Gordon (Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). Journal of Political Economy, 91, 589–610) is widely accepted now, several authors have expressed serious doubts about the empirical relevance of the model in explaining inflation. Interestingly enough, few attempts have been made so far to test for the existence of inflationary biases empirically. Theory predicts a positive correlation between a monetary authority's relative preference for the high employment goal and inflation. Using polling data from six countries as a proxy for public preferences we provide empirical evidence in favor of the Barro-Gordon-model. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann, 2005. "Time inconsistency of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from polls," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:125:y:2005:i:1:p:1-15
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-005-3324-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    2. Berlemann, Michael & Hilscher, Kai, 2010. "Effective monetary policy conservatism: A comparison of 11 OECD countries," HWWI Research Papers 2-21, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    3. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2011. "A Time-varying Indicator of Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 112/2011, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    4. Liu Yao & Mukherjee Arijit, 2024. "Lobbying for Tariff Protection, International Technology Licensing and Consumer Surplus," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 117-139, January.
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    6. Berggren, Niclas & Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov & Hellström, Jörgen, 2014. "Social trust and central-bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 425-439.
    7. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2017. "The relevance and relative robustness of sources of inflation bias in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 283-303.
    8. Luis Alfonso Dau & Randall Morck & Bernard Yin Yeung, 2021. "Business groups and the study of international business: A Coasean synthesis and extension," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(2), pages 161-211, March.
    9. Kyalisiima Prisca & Prof. Yang Jun, 2020. "The impact of Central Bank Independence and Transparency on Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 4(12), pages 38-52.
    10. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2016. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism of Central Banks: A Dynamic Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(1), pages 105-132, May.
    11. Andrea Beccarini, 2017. "Verifying time inconsistency of the ECB monetary policy by means of a regime-switching approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 203-227, May.
    12. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2018. "Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1083-1103.
    13. Sachsida, Adolfo & Divino, Jose Angelo & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira, 2011. "Inflation, unemployment, and the time consistency of the US monetary policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 173-179, June.
    14. Michael Berlemann & Kai Hielscher, 2013. "Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism: A Comparison of 13 OECD Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(3), pages 267-290, July.

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