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Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates

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  • S. Zhou

Abstract

This article applies standard unit root tests to the spot and forward exchange rates of four core members of the European Monetary System participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). In contrast to the findings of most previous studies, the results show strong evidence of stationarity for the ERM rates, for the period when there were no significant realignments in the rates.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence on the stationarity of ERM exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 231-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:231-233
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485022000044084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fred G M C Nieuwland & Willem F C Verschoor & Christian C P Wolff, 1990. "EMS Exchange Rates," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0002, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX..
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990. "Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    5. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Norrbin, S.C., 1993. "Bivariate Cointegration Among European Monetary System Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1993_07_06, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    8. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
    9. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:167-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2005. "Testing mean reversion in target-zone exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(20), pages 2335-2347.

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