IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/acctbr/v43y2013i5p530-557.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of disaggregation of earnings in stock valuation and earnings forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Pengguo Wang

Abstract

This paper compares and contrasts two accounting information systems, the aggregate earnings system and the disaggregated cash flow/accrual system, examining their relative performance in stock valuation and in forecasting of earnings. It finds, in general, that the forecasts of earnings and predicted market values from the cash flow and accrual system have smaller forecasting errors than those from the aggregate earnings system. The adjusted R -squareds from the disaggregated system are in the main higher than those from the aggregated system when considering the explanatory power of the model-predicted values. The results also show that the cash flow and accrual system forecasts dominate the aggregate earnings system forecasts in a large majority of industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Pengguo Wang, 2013. "The role of disaggregation of earnings in stock valuation and earnings forecasting," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 530-557, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:acctbr:v:43:y:2013:i:5:p:530-557
    DOI: 10.1080/00014788.2013.804794
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00014788.2013.804794
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00014788.2013.804794?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
    2. Andrew W. Stark, 1997. "Linear Information Dynamics, Dividend Irrelevance, Corporate Valuation and the Clean Surplus Relationship," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 219-228, February.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Barth, Mary E. & Beaver, William H. & Landsman, Wayne R., 1998. "Relative valuation roles of equity book value and net income as a function of financial health," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-34, February.
    5. Dechow, Patricia M. & Hutton, Amy P. & Sloan, Richard G., 1999. "An empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model1," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 1-34, January.
    6. Freeman, Rn & Ohlson, Ja & Penman, Sh, 1982. "Book Rate-Of-Return And Prediction Of Earnings Changes - An Empirical-Investigation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 639-653.
    7. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    8. Colin D.B. Clubb, 1996. "Valuation and Clean Surplus Accounting: Some Implications of the Feltham and Ohlson Model for the Relative Information Content of Earnings and Cash Flows," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 329-337, March.
    9. Martin Walker & Pengguo Wang, 2003. "Towards an understanding of profitability analysis within the residual income valuation framework," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 235-246.
    10. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
    11. Dechow, Patricia M. & Kothari, S. P. & L. Watts, Ross, 1998. "The relation between earnings and cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 133-168, May.
    12. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Robin, Ashok, 2000. "Corrigendum to "The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings"; [Journal of Accounting and Economics 29 (2000) 1-51]," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 241-241, October.
    13. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    14. Paul Hribar & Daniel W. Collins, 2002. "Errors in Estimating Accruals: Implications for Empirical Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, March.
    15. Feltham, GA & Ohlson, JA, 1996. "Uncertainty resolution and the theory of depreciation measurement," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 209-234.
    16. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Robin, Ashok, 2000. "The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51, February.
    17. Pfeiffer, RJ & Elgers, PT, 1999. "Controlling for lagged stock price responses in pricing regressions: An application to the pricing of cash flows and accruals," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 239-247.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pooja Kumari & Chandra Sekhar Mishra, 2020. "Equity Values and Prediction of Earnings with Disaggregation of Earnings in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 990-1010, August.
    2. Kumari, Pooja & Mishra, Chandra Sekhar, 2020. "Value relevance of aggregated and disaggregated earnings in India: Significance of intangible intensity," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pooja Kumari & Chandra Sekhar Mishra, 2020. "Equity Values and Prediction of Earnings with Disaggregation of Earnings in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 990-1010, August.
    2. Jeffrey L. Callen & Dan Segal, 2004. "Do Accruals Drive Firm‐Level Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 527-560, June.
    3. Shadi Farshadfar & Reza Monem, 2013. "The usefulness of operating cash flow and accrual components in improving the predictive ability of earnings: a re-examination and extension," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(4), pages 1061-1082, December.
    4. Tami Dinh Thi & Wolfgang Schultze, 2011. "Capitalizing research & development and ‘other information’: the incremental information content of accruals versus cash flows," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 241-278, November.
    5. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    6. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    7. Ballas, Apostolos A. & Hevas, Dimosthenis L., 2005. "Differences in the valuation of earnings and book value: Regulation effects or industry effects?," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 363-389.
    8. Tsalavoutas, Ioannis & André, Paul & Evans, Lisa, 2012. "The transition to IFRS and the value relevance of financial statements in Greece," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 262-277.
    9. Mary E. Barth & Greg Clinch & Doron Israeli, 2016. "What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 768-807, September.
    10. Nallareddy, Suresh & Sethuraman, Mani & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2020. "Changes in accrual properties and operating environment: Implications for cash flow predictability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2).
    11. Karampinis, Nikolaos I. & Hevas, Dimosthenis L., 2011. "Mandating IFRS in an Unfavorable Environment: The Greek Experience," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 304-332, September.
    12. Shadi Farshadfar & Reza M. Monem, 2019. "Further evidence of the relationship between accruals and future cash flows," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(1), pages 143-176, March.
    13. Igor Goncharov & Allan Hodgson, 2008. "Comprehensive Income In Europe: Valuation, Prediction And Conservative Issues," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 1-1.
    14. Dmitri Byzalov & Sudipta Basu, 2016. "Conditional conservatism and disaggregated bad news indicators in accrual models," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 859-897, September.
    15. Goncharov, Igor & Werner, Joerg R. & Zimmermann, Jochen, 2009. "Legislative demands and economic realities: Company and group accounts compared," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 334-362, December.
    16. Takashi Obinata, 2002. "Concept and Relevance of Income," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-171, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    17. Macías, Marta & Muiño, Flora, 2011. "Examining dual accounting systems in Europe," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 51-78, March.
    18. Myungsun Kim & William Kross, 2005. "The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing—Not Decreasing," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 753-780, December.
    19. Akbar, Saeed & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Stark, Andrew W., 2011. "The value relevance of cash flows, current accruals, and non-current accruals in the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 311-319.
    20. Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:acctbr:v:43:y:2013:i:5:p:530-557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RABR20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.