IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/spacre/v20y2017i1p95-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas

Author

Listed:
  • Monterrey Mayoral, Juan
  • Sánchez Segura, Amparo

Abstract

En el presente trabajo llevamos a cabo una evaluación crítica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad basados en el concepto de persistencia, probando su eficacia sobre una amplia muestra de empresas españolas. Nuestros resultados ponen de manifiesto cómo 2 de las técnicas analizadas, la autorregresiva y la de separación de componentes, aportan las estimaciones de mayor calidad en la mayoría de las ocasiones y exhiben, en líneas generales, el mayor contenido predictivo incremental para diferentes especificaciones de la rentabilidad y para horizontes temporales a uno y 5 años. Además, la evidencia obtenida también revela que la calidad de las predicciones no depende solamente de la elección del método de estimación, sino que también guarda una importante relación con las propias características corporativas de las compañías, tales como el tamaño, las tasas de crecimiento o los niveles actuales de rentabilidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spacre:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:95-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rcsar.2016.08.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1138489116300139
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rcsar.2016.08.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Watts, Rl & Leftwich, Rw, 1977. "Time-Series Of Annual Accounting Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 253-271.
    2. Kohn, Robert, 1982. "When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-349, April.
    3. Stephen H. Penman, 2001. "On Comparing Cash Flow and Accrual Accounting Models for Use in Equity Valuation: A Response to Lundholm and O'Keefe (CAR, Summer 2001)," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 681-692, December.
    4. Geroski, Paul A & Jacquemin, Alexis, 1988. "The Persistence of Profits: A European Comparison," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 375-389, June.
    5. Brooks, LeRoy D & Buckmaster, Dale A, 1976. "Further Evidence on the Time Series Properties of Accounting Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(5), pages 1359-1373, December.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    7. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stig63-1.
    8. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
    9. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    10. Richardson, Scott A. & Sloan, Richard G. & Soliman, Mark T. & Tuna, Irem, 2005. "Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 437-485, September.
    11. Ball, Ray & Watts, Ross, 1972. "Some Time Series Properties of Accounting Income," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 663-681, June.
    12. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
    13. Colin Bermingham & Antonello D’Agostino, 2014. "Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 765-788, March.
    14. Dechow, Patricia M. & Kothari, S. P. & L. Watts, Ross, 1998. "The relation between earnings and cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 133-168, May.
    15. Dangerfield, Byron J. & Morris, John S., 1992. "Top-down or bottom-up: Aggregate versus disaggregate extrapolations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 233-241, October.
    16. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Errata Statement for "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries, pages 2-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    18. Ou, Ja, 1990. "The Information-Content Of Nonearnings Accounting Numbers As Earnings Predictors," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 144-163.
    19. Cubbin, John & Geroski, Paul A, 1987. "The Convergence of Profits in the Long Run: Inter-firm and Inter-industry Comparisons," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 427-442, June.
    20. Ou, Ja & Penman, Sh, 1989. "Accounting Measurement, Price Earnings Ratio, And The Information-Content Of Security Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 111-144.
    21. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    22. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 208-222, April.
    23. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Front matter, "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries" including Preface," NBER Chapters, in: Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries, pages -21--9, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Introduction to "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries, pages 3-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Patricia M. Fairfield & Sundaresh Ramnath & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2009. "Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 147-178, March.
    26. Abarbanell, JS & Bushee, BJ, 1997. "Fundamental analysis, future earnings, and stock prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24.
    27. repec:bla:econom:v:44:y:1977:i:176:p:369-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Carmelo Reverte & Isidoro Guzman, 2010. "The predictive ability of relative efficiency for future earnings: an application using data envelopment analysis to Spanish SMEs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(21), pages 2751-2757.
    29. Finger, Ca, 1994. "The Ability Of Earnings To Predict Future Earnings And Cash Flow," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 210-223.
    30. Freeman, Rn & Ohlson, Ja & Penman, Sh, 1982. "Book Rate-Of-Return And Prediction Of Earnings Changes - An Empirical-Investigation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 639-653.
    31. Ferson, Wayne & Nallareddy, Suresh & Xie, Biqin, 2013. "The “out-of-sample” performance of long run risk models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 537-556.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    2. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2020. "Exploiting ergodicity in forecasts of corporate profitability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    4. Saeed Ahmed, 2007. "Forecasting Profitability, Earnings, and Corporate Taxes: Evidence from UK Companies," SBP Working Paper Series 16, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Brett W. Cantrell & Victoria Dickinson, 2020. "Conditional Life Cycle: An Examination of Operating Performance for Leaders and Laggards," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 433-451, January.
    6. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    7. Gerakos, Joseph & Kovrijnykh, Andrei, 2013. "Performance shocks and misreporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 57-72.
    8. Feng Li & Russell Lundholm & Michael Minnis, 2013. "A Measure of Competition Based on 10‐K Filings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 399-436, May.
    9. van Lent, L.A.G.M., 1999. "Incomplete contracting theory in empirical accounting research," Other publications TiSEM 088f797d-9fa4-4081-98f4-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Nikola Petrovic & Stuart Manson & Jerry Coakley, 2009. "Does Volatility Improve UK Earnings Forecasts?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1148-1179, November.
    11. Patricia M. Fairfield & Sundaresh Ramnath & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2009. "Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 147-178, March.
    12. Safdar, Irfan, 2016. "Industry competition and fundamental analysis," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 36-54.
    13. Patricia M. Dechow & Scott A. Richardson & Richard G. Sloan, 2008. "The Persistence and Pricing of the Cash Component of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 537-566, June.
    14. Kenneth Peasnell & Yuan Yin & Martien Lubberink, 2018. "Analysts’ stock recommendations, earnings growth and risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(1), pages 217-254, March.
    15. Mary E. Barth & Greg Clinch & Doron Israeli, 2016. "What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 768-807, September.
    16. Myungsun Kim & William Kross, 2005. "The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing—Not Decreasing," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 753-780, December.
    17. Demmer, Matthias, 2015. "Improving profitability forecasts with information on earnings quality," Discussion Papers 2015/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    18. Maury, Benjamin, 2018. "Sustainable competitive advantage and profitability persistence: Sources versus outcomes for assessing advantage," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 100-113.
    19. Yuan Yin & Ken Peasnell & Herbert G. Hunt, 2018. "How do sell-side analysts obtain price-earnings multiples to value firms?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 108-135, January.
    20. Olga Fullana & Juan M. Nave & David Toscano, 2018. "The implied equity duration when discounting and forecasting parameters are industry specific," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 179-209, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacidad predictiva; Rentabilidad; Análisis de estados financieros; Predictive ability; Profitability; Financial statement analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:spacre:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:95-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/intelligence .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.