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Changes in accrual properties and operating environment: Implications for cash flow predictability

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  • Nallareddy, Suresh
  • Sethuraman, Mani
  • Venkatachalam, Mohan

Abstract

This paper reconciles conflicting evidence in prior literature on the relative ability of earnings and cash flows in predicting future cash flows. Further, we investigate the implications of temporal shifts in accrual properties and operating environment for cash flow predictability. Three key insights emerge. First, cash flows consistently outperform earnings in predicting future cash flows. Second, accruals and its components, including those capturing non-articulating events, have incremental (albeit small) predictive ability over cash flows. Third, earnings’ ability to predict future cash flows has increased over the period 1989–2015, due to changes in operating environment rather than accrual properties.

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  • Nallareddy, Suresh & Sethuraman, Mani & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2020. "Changes in accrual properties and operating environment: Implications for cash flow predictability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:69:y:2020:i:2:s016541012030015x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2020.101313
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    Cited by:

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    2. Le, Ha Thi Thu & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Vo, Thi Thuc, 2021. "Accruals quality and the cost of debt: Evidence from Vietnam," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Olbert, Lars, 2024. "Identifying gaps between research results and education," Journal of Accounting Education, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Yang Pang & Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi & Yang Zhao, 2022. "A nonlinear dynamic approach to cash flow forecasting," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 205-237, July.
    5. Du, Kai & Huddart, Steven & Jiang, Xin Daniel, 2023. "Lost in standardization: Effects of financial statement database discrepancies on inference," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1).
    6. Ball, Ray & Nikolaev, Valeri V., 2022. "On earnings and cash flows as predictors of future cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1).
    7. Hui Tian & Andrew Yim & David P. Newton, 2021. "Tail-Heaviness, Asymmetry, and Profitability Forecasting by Quantile Regression," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 5209-5233, August.
    8. Rouen, Ethan & So, Eric C. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2021. "Core earnings: New data and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1068-1091.
    9. Le, Ha Thi Thu & Tran, Ha Giang & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Audit quality, accruals quality and the cost of equity in an emerging market: Evidence from Vietnam," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Anup Srivastava, 2023. "Trivialization of the bottom line and losing relevance of losses," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1190-1208, September.
    11. Heater, John C. & Nallareddy, Suresh & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2021. "Aggregate accruals and market returns: The role of aggregate M&A activity," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2).

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