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Out-of-sample performance of the Black-Litterman model

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  • Frieder Meyer-Bullerdiek

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the out-of-sample performance of the Black Litterman (BL) model for a German stock portfolio compared to the traditional mean-variance optimized (MV) portfolio, the German stock index DAX, a reference portfolio, and an equally weighted portfolio. The BL model was developed as an alternative approach to portfolio optimization many years ago and has gained attention in practical portfolio management. However, in the literature, there are not many studies that analyze the out-of-sample performance of the model in comparison to other asset allocation strategies. The BL model combines implied returns and subjective return forecasts. In this study, for each stock, sample means of historical returns are employed as subjective return forecasts. The empirical analysis shows that the BL portfolio performs significantly better than the DAX, the reference portfolio and the equally weighted portfolio. However, overall, it is slightly outperformed by the MV portfolio. Nevertheless, the BL portfolio may be of greater interest to investors because -according to this study, where the subjective return forecasts are based on historical returns of a rather long past period of time-it could lead in most cases to lower absolute (normalized) values for the stock weights and for all stocks to smaller fluctuations in the (normalized) weights compared to the MV portfolio. JEL classification numbers: C61, G11.

Suggested Citation

  • Frieder Meyer-Bullerdiek, 2021. "Out-of-sample performance of the Black-Litterman model," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 1-2.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:fininv:v:10:y:2021:i:2:f:10_2_2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Schans & Hens Steehouwer, 2017. "Time-Dependent Black–Litterman," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(5), pages 371-387, September.
    2. Erindi Allaj, 2020. "The Black–Litterman model and views from a reverse optimization procedure: an out-of-sample performance evaluation," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 465-492, October.
    3. Maria Debora Braga & Francesco Paolo Natale, 2012. "Active risk sensitivity to views using the Black–Litterman model," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 5-21, February.
    4. Erindi Allaj, 2013. "The Black–Litterman model: a consistent estimation of the parameter tau," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(2), pages 217-251, June.
    5. Wing Cheung, 2010. "The Black–Litterman model explained," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 229-243, October.
    6. S Satchell & A Scowcroft, 2000. "A demystification of the Black–Litterman model: Managing quantitative and traditional portfolio construction," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(2), pages 138-150, September.
    7. Harris, Richard D.F. & Stoja, Evarist & Tan, Linzhi, 2017. "The dynamic Black–Litterman approach to asset allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1085-1096.
    8. Satchell, Stephen, 2007. "Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780750683210.
    9. Andi Duqi & Leonardo Franci & Giuseppe Torluccio, 2014. "The Black-Litterman model: the definition of views based on volatility forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1285-1296, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black-Litterman; Mean-variance; Portfolio optimization; Performance.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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