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Definition of Extreme Rainfall Events and Design of Rainfall Based on the Copula Function

Author

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  • Changyan Yin

    (Zhengzhou University)

  • Jiayi Wang

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission)

  • Xin Yu

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission)

  • Yong Li

    (Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission)

  • Denghua Yan

    (Zhengzhou University)

  • Shengqi Jian

    (Zhengzhou University)

Abstract

Extreme rainfall has changed in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change, and its impact on nature and society is far greater than that of rainfall change. Scientifically defining extreme rainfall events and obtaining the design rainfall is of great significance to analyze the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Existing definitions of extreme precipitation events have usually focused on rainfall amounts at fixed durations rather than complete events with variable durations. Using sub-daily precipitation and runoff data covering 1971–2018 from 17 stations over the Jingle sub-basin, we constructed an appropriate copula function to define extreme persistent rainfall events under bivariate analysis and obtained the rainfall process of the designed rainfall under different return periods. The results showed that (1) the joint distribution based on Copula was more accurate than the traditional univariate probability methods for identifying extreme rainfall events with a threshold of 90%. (2) The Copula joint distribution established in the basin can well calculate the designed extreme rainfall under the return periods of 100 a, 50 a, 30 a, 25 a, 10 a and 5 a. (3) The rainfall intensity duration model had a good simulation effect on the rainfall intensity duration distribution of the basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Changyan Yin & Jiayi Wang & Xin Yu & Yong Li & Denghua Yan & Shengqi Jian, 2022. "Definition of Extreme Rainfall Events and Design of Rainfall Based on the Copula Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3759-3778, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03229-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03229-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christoph Schär & Nikolina Ban & Erich M. Fischer & Jan Rajczak & Jürg Schmidli & Christoph Frei & Filippo Giorgi & Thomas R. Karl & Elizabeth J. Kendon & Albert M. G. Klein Tank & Paul A. O’Gorman & , 2016. "Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 201-216, July.
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    5. Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo De Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2020. "A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4217-4231, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junyao Zhang & Ning Yao & Yi Li & Feng Li & Bakhtiyor Pulatov, 2022. "Effects of Different Socioeconomic Development Levels on Extreme Precipitation Events in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.

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