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Determination of extreme precipitation threshold and analysis of its effective patterns (case study: west of Iran)

Author

Listed:
  • Shahab Shaffie

    (Yazd University)

  • GholamAli Mozaffari

    (Yazd University)

  • Younes Khosravi

    (University of Zanjan)

Abstract

Flash floods caused by extreme rainfalls are one of the most significant natural hazards. In the present study, the precipitation data of 69 meteorological and climatological stations with temporal intervals (1961–2010) were obtained to determine the threshold of extreme precipitation as well as analyzing its significant patterns in the western regions of Iran. To determine the threshold of extreme precipitation, the theory of extreme value method was applied. In this method, precipitation of 22 mm and more than that covers 30% of the area had been identified and extracted as extreme precipitation. Therefore, 119 extreme precipitation events during the study period had been identified. Then, four patterns were analyzed using cluster analysis. After that, network data of geopotential height levels of 200, 300, 400 and 500 hPa for these days, from re-analyzed data series of NCEP/NCAR in the range of 10°–80°E and 0°–70°N and in 13,460 cells 2.5° × 2.5° were extracted by GrADS software. The results of the study showed that the most important humidity source for precipitation was the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea and the Red Sea, respectively. The upward vertical speed at different levels, located on the east and southeast cyclones of upper levels, which matches low pressure of the Earth’s surface, indicating unstable conditions in the region. Also, placing cutoff lows due to westerlies activities with warm and humid air advection at the surface and upper-level cold air were the main causes of severe atmospheric instability in the west of Iran.

Suggested Citation

  • Shahab Shaffie & GholamAli Mozaffari & Younes Khosravi, 2019. "Determination of extreme precipitation threshold and analysis of its effective patterns (case study: west of Iran)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 857-878, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03779-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03779-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Changyan Yin & Jiayi Wang & Xin Yu & Yong Li & Denghua Yan & Shengqi Jian, 2022. "Definition of Extreme Rainfall Events and Design of Rainfall Based on the Copula Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3759-3778, August.
    2. Zahra Afzali-Gorouh & Alireza Faridhosseini & Bahram Bakhtiari & Abolfazl Mosaedi & Nasrin Salehnia, 2022. "Monitoring and projection of climate change impact on 24-h probable maximum precipitation in the Southeast of Caspian Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 77-99, October.
    3. Yousef Ghavidel & Farzaneh Jafari Hombari, 2020. "Synoptic analysis of unexampled super-heavy rainfall on April 1, 2019, in west of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1567-1580, November.

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