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Two-Phase Risk Hedging Rules for Informing Conservation of Flood Resources in Reservoir Operation Considering Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Xu

    (Hohai University
    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

  • Xin Huang

    (Hohai University)

  • Ping-an Zhong

    (Hohai University)

  • Yenan Wu

    (University of Alberta)

Abstract

Water shortages during dry periods can be successfully mitigated by managing reservoirs in real-time to conserve water as floods recede. The inherent uncertainty in inflow forecasts however means that it remains a challenge to balance the risks of flooding against those of water shortages. Few studies have examined how the risks of floods and water shortages can be managed using reservoir operation rules. In this study, a two-phase stochastic optimization model was built to determine the optimal conservation level for flood water by minimizing the risks from both floods and water shortages. For the optimal condition, hedging rules were analytically derived as a quasi-linear function of the storage capability and the expected water shortage. The rules indicate that the flood water conservation was achieved when the marginal upstream flood risk was equal to the marginal water shortage risk, and that the limits of three operation zones divided by the expected water availability should be used when determining the water release. The results from testing the model with data from the Xianghongdian Reservoir (China) showed that the hedging rules outperformed the capacity-constrained pre-release rules for conserving flood water without increasing the flood risk. This proposed methodology will inform the process for making decisions about how to operate reservoirs to ensure optimal real-time flood water conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Xu & Xin Huang & Ping-an Zhong & Yenan Wu, 2020. "Two-Phase Risk Hedging Rules for Informing Conservation of Flood Resources in Reservoir Operation Considering Inflow Forecast Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2731-2752, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02571-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02571-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Navid Shenava & Mojtaba Shourian, 2018. "Optimal Reservoir Operation with Water Supply Enhancement and Flood Mitigation Objectives Using an Optimization-Simulation Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4393-4407, October.
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    6. A. Moridi & J. Yazdi, 2017. "Optimal Allocation of Flood Control Capacity for Multi-Reservoir Systems Using Multi-Objective Optimization Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4521-4538, November.
    7. Xu, Bin & Zhu, Feilin & Zhong, Ping-an & Chen, Juan & Liu, Weifeng & Ma, Yufei & Guo, Le & Deng, Xiaoliang, 2019. "Identifying long-term effects of using hydropower to complement wind power uncertainty through stochastic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhenyu Mu & Xueshan Ai & Jie Ding & Kui Huang & Senlin Chen & Jiajun Guo & Zuo Dong, 2022. "Risk Analysis of Dynamic Water Level Setting of Reservoir in Flood Season Based on Multi-index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3067-3086, July.
    2. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Hsu-Hui Wen & I-Wen Su, 2021. "Comparing Optimal Hedging Policies Incorporating Past Operation Information and Future Hydrologic Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2177-2196, May.
    3. Yawei Ning & Wei Ding & Guohua Liang & Bin He & Huicheng Zhou, 2021. "An Analytical Risk Analysis Method for Reservoir Flood Control Operation Considering Forecast Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(7), pages 2079-2099, May.
    4. Mostaghimzadeh, Ehsan & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Investigation of a composite two-phase hedging rule policy for a multi reservoir system using streamflow forecast," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).

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