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Negligence, Non-Science, and Consensus Climatology

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  • Patrick Frank

    (Palo Alto, CA, USA)

Abstract

The purported consensus that human greenhouse gas emissions have causally dominated the recent climate warming depends decisively upon three lines of evidence: climate model projections, reconstructed paleo-temperatures, and the instrumental surface air temperature record. However, CMIP5 climate model simulations of global cloud fraction reveal theory-bias error. Propagation of this cloud forcing error uncovers a r.s.s.e. uncertainty 1σ ≈ ±15 C in centennially projected air temperature. Causal attribution of warming is therefore impossible. Climate models also fail to reproduce targeted climate observables. For their part, consensus paleo-temperature reconstructions deploy an improper ‘correlation = causation’ logic, suborn physical theory, and represent a descent into pseudo-science. Finally, the published global averaged surface air temperature record completely neglects systematic instrumental error. The average annual systematic measurement uncertainty, 1σ = ±0.5 C, completely vitiates centennial climate warming at the 95% confidence interval. The entire consensus position fails critical examination and evidences pervasive analytical negligence.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Frank, 2015. "Negligence, Non-Science, and Consensus Climatology," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(3), pages 391-415, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:engenv:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:391-415
    DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.26.3.391
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