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MERLIN: a flood hazard forecasting system for coastal river reaches

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Fraga

    (CITIC, University of A Coruña)

  • Luis Cea

    (University of A Coruña)

  • Jerónimo Puertas

    (University of A Coruña)

Abstract

This study presents MERLIN, an innovative flood hazard forecasting system for predicting discharges and water levels at flood prone areas of coastal catchments. Discharge forecasts are preceded by a hindcast stage. During this stage, the hydrological models assimilate soil moisture and hydro-meteorological observations to evaluate soil infiltration capacities at the beginning of the discharge forecast. Predicted discharges are converted to water-level forecasts using the hydraulic model Iber+, a GPU-parallelized bidimensional flow model. Hydraulic models also assimilate tidal-level forecasts in order to define the boundary conditions of the models. The performance of MERLIN was evaluated over 4 months at three coastal catchments of 4.95, 16.96, and 83.9 km2. Forecasted discharges and water levels presented a good fit to observed values, especially at the larger catchments, which confirmed the potential utility of the presented system.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Fraga & Luis Cea & Jerónimo Puertas, 2020. "MERLIN: a flood hazard forecasting system for coastal river reaches," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(3), pages 1171-1193, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03855-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03855-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
    2. Wim Kellens & Wouter Vanneuville & Els Verfaillie & Ellen Meire & Pieter Deckers & Philippe Maeyer, 2013. "Flood Risk Management in Flanders: Past Developments and Future Challenges," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3585-3606, August.
    3. J. Sopelana & L. Cea & S. Ruano, 2018. "A continuous simulation approach for the estimation of extreme flood inundation in coastal river reaches affected by meso- and macrotides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1337-1358, September.
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