IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v31y2017i6d10.1007_s11269-017-1616-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of Bayesian Decision Networks for Groundwater Resources Management Under the Conditions of High Uncertainty and Data Scarcity

Author

Listed:
  • Hadis Mohajerani

    (University of Trier)

  • Majid Kholghi

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abolfazl Mosaedi

    (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM))

  • Raziyeh Farmani

    (University of Exeter)

  • Amir Sadoddin

    (Gorgan University of Agricultural Sci & Natural Resources)

  • Markus Casper

    (University of Trier)

Abstract

This paper presents management of groundwater resource using a Bayesian Decision Network (BDN). The Kordkooy region in North East of Iran has been selected as study area. The region has been sub-divided into three zones based on transmissivity (T) and electrical conductivity (EC) values. The BDN parameters: prior probabilities and Conditional Probability Tables - CPTs) have been identified for each of the three zones. Three groups of management scenarios have been developed based on the two decision variables including “Crop pattern” and “Domestic water demand” across the three zones of the study area: 1) status quo management for all three zones represent current conditions; 2) the effect of change in cropping pattern on management endpoints and 3) the effect of future increased domestic water demand on management endpoints. The outcomes arising from implementing each scenario have been predicted by use of the constructed BDN for each of the zones. Results reveal that probability of drawdown in groundwater levels of southern areas is relatively high compared with other zones. Groundwater withdrawal from northern and northwestern areas of the study area should be limited due to the groundwater quality problems associated with shallow groundwater of these two zones. The ability of the Bayesian Decision Network to take into account key uncertainties in natural resources and perform meaningful analysis in cases where there is not a vast amount of information and observed data available – and opportunities for enabling inputs for the analysis based partly on expert elicitation,emphasizes key advantages of this approach for groundwater management and addressing the groundwater related problems in a data-scarce area.

Suggested Citation

  • Hadis Mohajerani & Majid Kholghi & Abolfazl Mosaedi & Raziyeh Farmani & Amir Sadoddin & Markus Casper, 2017. "Application of Bayesian Decision Networks for Groundwater Resources Management Under the Conditions of High Uncertainty and Data Scarcity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1859-1879, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1616-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1616-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1616-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1616-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan Han & Yue-Fei Huang & Guang-Qian Wang & Imran Maqsood, 2011. "A Multi-objective Linear Programming Model with Interval Parameters for Water Resources Allocation in Dalian City," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 449-463, January.
    2. Barton, David N. & Benjamin, Tamara & Cerdán, Carlos R. & DeClerck, Fabrice & Madsen, Anders L. & Rusch, Graciela M. & Salazar, Álvaro G. & Sanchez, Dalia & Villanueva, Cristóbal, 2016. "Assessing ecosystem services from multifunctional trees in pastures using Bayesian belief networks," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 165-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Parisa Noorbeh & Abbas Roozbahani & Hamid Kardan Moghaddam, 2020. "Annual and Monthly Dam Inflow Prediction Using Bayesian Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2933-2951, July.
    2. Javad Shafiee Neyestanak & Abbas Roozbahani, 2021. "Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban Wastewater Reuse in Water Supply Alternatives Using Hybrid Bayesian Network Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 5049-5072, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Songsong Liu & Lazaros Papageorgiou & Petros Gikas, 2012. "Integrated Management of Non-conventional Water Resources in Anhydrous Islands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 359-375, January.
    2. Chunlong Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Shuo Ouyang & Chao Wang & Yi Liu, 2015. "Water Resources Optimal Allocation Based on Large-scale Reservoirs in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2171-2187, May.
    3. Agudelo, César Augusto Ruiz & Bustos, Sandra Liliana Hurtado & Moreno, Carmen Alicia Parrado, 2020. "Modeling interactions among multiple ecosystem services. A critical review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    4. B. Sarma & A. Sarma & V. Singh, 2013. "Optimal Ecological Management Practices (EMPs) for Minimizing the Impact of Climate Change and Watershed Degradation Due to Urbanization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4069-4082, September.
    5. R. Roozbahani & B. Abbasi & S. Schreider & A. Ardakani, 2014. "A Multi-objective Approach for Transboundary River Water Allocation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5447-5463, December.
    6. Sagarika Patowary & Banasri Sarma & Arup Kumar Sarma, 2019. "A Revision of OPTEMP-LS Model for Selecting Optimal EMP Combination for Minimizing Sediment and Water Yield from Hilly Urban Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1249-1264, March.
    7. D. Morankar & K. Srinivasa Raju & D. Nagesh Kumar, 2013. "Integrated Sustainable Irrigation Planning with Multiobjective Fuzzy Optimization Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 3981-4004, September.
    8. Ali Reza Nafarzadegan & Hassan Vagharfard & Mohammad Reza Nikoo & Ahmad Nohegar, 2018. "Socially-Optimal and Nash Pareto-Based Alternatives for Water Allocation under Uncertainty: an Approach and Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 2985-3000, July.
    9. Kaiyong Wang & Pengyan Zhang & Bo Pang, 2018. "Process and Mechanism of Agricultural Irrigation Benefit Allocation Coefficient Based on Emergy Analysis—A Case Study of Henan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    10. Feng, Zhe & Jin, Xueru & Chen, Tianqian & Wu, Jiansheng, 2021. "Understanding trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services to support the decision-making in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Cai, Yanpeng & Yue, Wencong & Xu, Linyu & Yang, Zhifeng & Rong, Qiangqiang, 2016. "Sustainable urban water resources management considering life-cycle environmental impacts of water utilization under uncertainty," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-40.
    12. Fuxing Wang & Oliver Saavedra Valeriano & Xinguo Sun, 2013. "Near Real-Time Optimization of Multi-Reservoir during Flood Season in the Fengman Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4315-4335, September.
    13. Hanif Malekpoor & Konstantinos Chalvatzis & Nishikant Mishra & Mukesh Kumar Mehlawat & Dimitrios Zafirakis & Malin Song, 2018. "Integrated grey relational analysis and multi objective grey linear programming for sustainable electricity generation planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 269(1), pages 475-503, October.
    14. Pradeep Dogra & V. Sharda & P. Ojasvi & Shiv Prasher & R. Patel, 2014. "Compromise Programming Based Model for Augmenting Food Production with Minimum Water Allocation in a Watershed: a Case Study in the Indian Himalayas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5247-5265, December.
    15. Binglong Wang & Yanpeng Cai & Xin’An Yin & Qian Tan & Yan Hao, 2017. "An Integrated Approach of System Dynamics, Orthogonal Experimental Design and Inexact Optimization for Supporting Water Resources Management under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1665-1694, March.
    16. Ammar Ahmed Musa, 2021. "Goal programming model for optimal water allocation of limited resources under increasing demands," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5956-5984, April.
    17. Tschopp, Maurice & Ceddia, M. Graziano & Inguaggiato, Carla & Bardsley, Nicholas O. & Hernández, Hernán, 2020. "Understanding the adoption of sustainable silvopastoral practices in Northern Argentina: What is the role of land tenure?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1616-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.