IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v30y2016i10d10.1007_s11269-016-1354-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benefit and Risk Balance Optimization for Stochastic Hydropower Scheduling

Author

Listed:
  • Liu Yuan

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Jianzhong Zhou

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Chunlong Li

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Mengfei Xie

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Li Mo

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Limited by inflow forecasting methods, the forecasting results are so unreliable that we have to take their uncertainty and risk into account when incorporating stochastic inflow into reservoir operation. Especially in the electricity market, punishment often happens when the hydropower station does not perform as planned. Therefore, focusing on the risk of power generation, a benefit and risk balance optimization model (BRM) which takes stochastic inflow as the major risk factor is proposed for stochastic hydropower scheduling. The mean-variance theory is firstly introduced into the optimal dispatching of hydropower station, and a variational risk coefficient is employed to give service to managers’ subjective preferences. Then, the multi-period stochastic inflow is simulated by multi-layer scenario tree. Moreover, a specific scenario reduction and reconstruction method is put forward to reduce branches and computing time accordingly. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China for constructing a weekly generation scheduling in falling stage. Compared to deterministic dynamic programming (DDP) and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP), BRM achieves more satisfactory performance. Moreover, the tradeoffs for risk-averse decision makers are discussed, and an efficient curve about benefit and risk is formed to help make decision.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu Yuan & Jianzhong Zhou & Chunlong Li & Mengfei Xie & Li Mo, 2016. "Benefit and Risk Balance Optimization for Stochastic Hydropower Scheduling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3347-3361, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1354-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1354-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-016-1354-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-016-1354-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xin-Ming Zhang & Li-ping Wang & Ji-wei Li & Yan-ke Zhang, 2013. "Self-Optimization Simulation Model of Short-Term Cascaded Hydroelectric System Dispatching Based on the Daily Load Curve," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5045-5067, December.
    2. Ludovic Gaudard & Manfred Gilli & Franco Romerio, 2013. "Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5143-5156, December.
    3. Ming Zhang & Fei Yang & Jing-Xiu Wu & Zi-Wu Fan & Ying-Ying Wang, 2016. "Application of Minimum Reward Risk Model in Reservoir Generation Scheduling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1345-1355, March.
    4. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.
    5. E. Fallah-Mehdipour & O. Bozorg Haddad & M. Mariño, 2012. "Real-Time Operation of Reservoir System by Genetic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4091-4103, November.
    6. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    7. Asmadi Ahmad & Ahmed El-Shafie & Siti Razali & Zawawi Mohamad, 2014. "Reservoir Optimization in Water Resources: a Review," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3391-3405, September.
    8. Heiko Apel & Annegret Thieken & Bruno Merz & Günter Blöschl, 2006. "A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 79-100, May.
    9. Ming Zhang & Fei Yang & Jing-Xiu Wu & Zi-Wu Fan & Ying-Ying Wang, 2016. "Application of Minimum Reward Risk Model in Reservoir Generation Scheduling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1345-1355, March.
    10. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wen-jing Niu & Zhong-kai Feng & Shuai Liu & Yu-bin Chen & Yin-shan Xu & Jun Zhang, 2021. "Multiple Hydropower Reservoirs Operation by Hyperbolic Grey Wolf Optimizer Based on Elitism Selection and Adaptive Mutation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 573-591, January.
    2. Lei, Kaixuan & Chang, Jianxia & Long, Ruihao & Wang, Yimin & Zhang, Hongxue, 2022. "Cascade hydropower station risk operation under the condition of inflow uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    3. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Xie, Mengfei & Jia, Benjun & Bao, Zhengfeng & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Hairong, 2019. "Study on guaranteed output constraints in the long term joint optimal scheduling for the hydropower station group," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1210-1224.
    4. Jacopo Napolitano & Giovanni M. Sechi & Paola Zuddas, 2016. "Scenario Optimisation of Pumping Schedules in a Complex Water Supply System Considering a Cost–Risk Balancing Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5231-5246, November.
    5. Gaudard, Ludovic & Avanzi, Francesco & De Michele, Carlo, 2018. "Seasonal aspects of the energy-water nexus: The case of a run-of-the-river hydropower plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 604-612.
    6. Liu Yuan & Jianzhong Zhou & Zijun Mai & Yuanzheng Li, 2017. "Random Fuzzy Optimization Model for Short-Term Hydropower Scheduling Considering Uncertainty of Power Load," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2713-2728, July.
    7. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Qin, Hui & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei & Liu, Guangbiao & Feng, Kuaile, 2020. "A fast water level optimal control method based on two stage analysis for long term power generation scheduling of hydropower station," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    8. Jianzhong Zhou & Mengfei Xie & Zhongzhen He & Hui Qin & Liu Yuan, 2017. "Medium-Term Hydro Generation Scheduling (MTHGS) with Chance Constrained Model (CCM) and Dynamic Control Model (DCM)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3543-3555, September.
    9. Giovanni M. Sechi & Alexei A. Gaivoronski & Jacopo Napolitano, 2019. "Optimising Pumping Activation in Multi-Reservoir Water Supply Systems under Uncertainty with Stochastic Quasi-Gradient Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1881-1895, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gaudard, Ludovic & Avanzi, Francesco & De Michele, Carlo, 2018. "Seasonal aspects of the energy-water nexus: The case of a run-of-the-river hydropower plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 604-612.
    2. Ludovic Gaudard & Franco Romerio, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Jianzhong Zhou & Mengfei Xie & Zhongzhen He & Hui Qin & Liu Yuan, 2017. "Medium-Term Hydro Generation Scheduling (MTHGS) with Chance Constrained Model (CCM) and Dynamic Control Model (DCM)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3543-3555, September.
    4. Wenhua Wan & Jianshi Zhao & Jiabiao Wang, 2019. "Revisiting Water Supply Rule Curves with Hedging Theory for Climate Change Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Cook, David & Malinauskaite, Laura & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur & Ögmundardóttir, Helga, 2021. "Co-production processes underpinning the ecosystem services of glaciers and adaptive management in the era of climate change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Robert Y. Liang & Wei Li & Yingchun Cai, 2017. "Methodology for Establishing Risk Criteria for Dams in Developing Countries, Case Study of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(13), pages 4063-4074, October.
    7. Alejandro Castillo-Ramírez & Diego Mejía-Giraldo, 2021. "Measuring Financial Impacts of the Renewable Energy Based Fiscal Policy in Colombia under Electricity Price Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, February.
    8. Liu Yuan & Jianzhong Zhou, 2017. "Self-Optimization System Dynamics Simulation of Real-Time Short Term Cascade Hydropower System Considering Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2127-2140, May.
    9. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    10. Shen, Jian-jian & Cheng, Chun-tian & Jia, Ze-bin & Zhang, Yang & Lv, Quan & Cai, Hua-xiang & Wang, Bang-can & Xie, Meng-fei, 2022. "Impacts, challenges and suggestions of the electricity market for hydro-dominated power systems in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 743-759.
    11. Guittet, Mélanie & Capezzali, Massimiliano & Gaudard, Ludovic & Romerio, Franco & Vuille, François & Avellan, François, 2016. "Study of the drivers and asset management of pumped-storage power plants historical and geographical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 560-579.
    12. B. François & B. Hingray & J. Creutin & F. Hendrickx, 2015. "Estimating Water System Performance Under Climate Change: Influence of the Management Strategy Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4903-4918, October.
    13. Li, Xiao & Liu, Pan & Wang, Yibo & Yang, Zhikai & Gong, Yu & An, Rihui & Huang, Kangdi & Wen, Yan, 2022. "Derivation of operating rule curves for cascade hydropower reservoirs considering the spot market: A case study of the China's Qing River cascade-reservoir system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 1028-1038.
    14. Katakam V SeethaRam, 2021. "Three Level Rule Curve for Optimum Operation of a Multipurpose Reservoir using Genetic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 353-368, January.
    15. Behrang Beiranvand & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization of Dams Reservoir Operation Using the Meta-heuristic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3457-3526, July.
    16. Janeth Carolina Godoy & Daniel Villamar & Rafael Soria & César Vaca & Thomas Hamacher & Freddy Ordóñez, 2021. "Preparing the Ecuador’s Power Sector to Enable a Large-Scale Electric Land Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    17. François, B., 2016. "Influence of winter North-Atlantic Oscillation on Climate-Related-Energy penetration in Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 602-613.
    18. Machado, Bruno Goulart F. & Bhagwat, Pradyumna C., 2020. "The impact of the generation mix on the current regulatory framework for hydropower remuneration in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    20. Cui, Xueting & Zhu, Shushang & Sun, Xiaoling & Li, Duan, 2013. "Nonlinear portfolio selection using approximate parametric Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2124-2139.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1354-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.