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Estimating Water System Performance Under Climate Change: Influence of the Management Strategy Modeling

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  • B. François
  • B. Hingray
  • J. Creutin
  • F. Hendrickx

Abstract

Water resource management models, used to anticipate global change impact on water system performance, are classically a crude representation of real water systems. This paper analyzes how the representation of the management model may influence estimates of changes in performance for a multiobjective water reservoir in the French Alps. We consider three management strategy representations named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). Changes in system performance are estimated for a multimodel multimember ensemble of hydroclimatic simulations under the SRES-A1B emission scenario. They are much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the strategy representation. The simple clear-sighted management representation has a quite similar effect as the far-sighted one supposedly closer to real world. The short-sighted representation misestimates the system performance, especially when inter-annual inflow variability is high. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • B. François & B. Hingray & J. Creutin & F. Hendrickx, 2015. "Estimating Water System Performance Under Climate Change: Influence of the Management Strategy Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4903-4918, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4903-4918
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1097-5
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    1. Ludovic Gaudard & Manfred Gilli & Franco Romerio, 2013. "Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5143-5156, December.
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    4. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.
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    6. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.

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