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Estimation of Optimal Groundwater Substitution Volumes Using a Distributed Parameter Groundwater Model and Prediction Uncertainty Analysis

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  • J. Sreekanth
  • Catherine Moore
  • Leif Wolf

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a methodology that can be used for determining the spatial and temporal distribution of additional water volumes required to meet a defined groundwater target, such as an historical peizometric surface. The methodology is demonstrated on a case study concerned with mitigating declining groundwater levels in an alluvial aquifer intensively used for agriculture in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland, Australia. The proposed mitigation measure is the importing of large volumes of purified recycled water (PRW) from a large scale indirect potable reuse scheme into the aquifer system. The developed methodology employs both a groundwater flow model together with linear uncertainty analysis. Therefore for the case study, a distributed parameter numerical groundwater flow model was developed for the Lockyer valley alluvial aquifer system using MODFLOW, calibrated to observed groundwater levels, and further constrained by estimates of diffuse and river recharge from water balance studies. The model was used to simulate groundwater levels in the aquifer over a 20-year period. Optimal spatial and temporal distribution of volumes of imported water required to mitigate declining groundwater levels over that period were then estimated, using a modified version of the MODFLOW General Head Boundary (GHB) package. Uncertainty in the predicted import volumes was estimated using linear bayesian analysis principles. The relative worth of data from each observation bore within the groundwater monitoring network was also assessed in terms of the extent to which predictions of import water volumes were made more reliable when furnished with that data. Application of the methodology to the Lockyer alluvial aquifer system illustrated the suitability of the developed methodology for estimating the additional water volumes required for managed aquifer recharge or groundwater substitution schemes in similarly over-exploited aquifers. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • J. Sreekanth & Catherine Moore & Leif Wolf, 2015. "Estimation of Optimal Groundwater Substitution Volumes Using a Distributed Parameter Groundwater Model and Prediction Uncertainty Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3663-3679, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:10:p:3663-3679
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1022-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J Sreekanth & Bithin Datta, 2014. "Stochastic and Robust Multi-Objective Optimal Management of Pumping from Coastal Aquifers Under Parameter Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 2005-2019, May.
    2. R. Hadded & I. Nouiri & O. Alshihabi & J. Maßmann & M. Huber & A. Laghouane & H. Yahiaoui & J. Tarhouni, 2013. "A Decision Support System to Manage the Groundwater of the Zeuss Koutine Aquifer Using the WEAP-MODFLOW Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 1981-2000, May.
    3. Fakhri Manghi & Dennis Williams & Jack Safely & Moshrik Hamdi, 2012. "Groundwater Flow Modeling of the Arlington Basin to Evaluate Management Strategies for Expansion of the Arlington Desalter Water Production," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 21-41, January.
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    2. Renji Remesan & Arjun Prabhakaran & Macariush N. Sangma & Sreekanth Janardhanan & Mohammed Mainuddin & Sukanta K. Sarangi & Uttam Kumar Mandal & Dhiman Burman & Sukamal Sarkar & Kshirenda Kumar Mahant, 2021. "Modeling and Management Option Analysis for Saline Groundwater Drainage in a Deltaic Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Bo Zhang & Guoxiu Li & Pin Cheng & Tian-Chyi Jim Yeh & Mei Hong, 2016. "Landfill Risk Assessment on Groundwater Based on Vulnerability and Pollution Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1465-1480, March.

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